Asia Times Reports "Severity of [COVID-19] disease impact linked to BCG policies"

April 6, 2020, Update: Roni Caryn Rabin at The New York Times updated the Covid-19 / BCG topic with her April 3 (updated April 5) article "Can an Old Vaccine Stop the New Coronavirus? -- A tuberculosis vaccine invented a century ago is cheap and safe, and seems to bolster the body’s immune system." 

Today Dave Makichuk at Asia Times reported "According to a US study made widely available by MedRXiv, a combination of reduced morbidity and mortality could make the tuberculosis (TB) vaccine — Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination — a game-changer in the fight against Covid-19."

The article notes "For example Iran, which has a current universal BCG vaccination policy that only started in 1984, has an elevated mortality rate with 19.7 deaths per million inhabitants, the report said. In contrast, Japan, which started its universal BCG policy in 1947, has approximately 100 times fewer deaths per million people, with 0.28 deaths, the report said. Furthermore, Brazil started universal vaccination in 1920 and has an even lower mortality rate of 0.0573 deaths per million inhabitants."

The article continues "'We found that countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination, such as Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies,' the researchers state. [ . . . . ] The inoculation is also believed to offer broad-ranging protection against respiratory infections, which present similar symptoms to Covid-19." [par break] "In fact, Australian researchers have just announced plans to fast track large-scale testing to see if the BCG vaccination can protect health workers from the coronavirus, the report said."

The CDC's "corrected" Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020 noted "This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years."

Wikipedia, citing "BCG vaccines: WHO position paper – February 2018" in Weekly Epidemiological Record noted, "Serious side effects are rare. Often there is redness, swelling, and mild pain at the site of injection.[1] A small ulcer may also form with some scarring after healing.[1] Side effects are more common and potentially more severe in those with poor immune function.[1] It is not safe for use during pregnancy.[1] "

People in the US received contradictory information about COVID-19 facts. Zeynep Tufekci's March 17, 2020, New York Times opinion piece "Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired," has a subtitle "To help manage the shortage, the authorities sent a message that made them untrustworthy."  Tufekci wrote "First, many health experts, including the surgeon general of the United States, told the public simultaneously that masks weren’t necessary for protecting the general public and that health care workers needed the dwindling supply. This contradiction confuses an ordinary listener. How do these masks magically protect the wearers only and only if they work in a particular field? [par break] Second, there were attempts to bolster the first message, that ordinary people didn’t need masks, by telling people that masks, especially medical-grade respirator masks (such as the N95 masks), needed proper fitting and that ordinary people without such fitting wouldn’t benefit. This message was also deeply counterproductive."

In the US there was a lack of following pandemic preparation guidelines according to Jeremy Konyndyk, former Director of Foreign Disaster Assistance, USAID.

Thomas McAndrew, a Postdoctoral Fellow of Biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, recently wrote "The average probability that experts assigned to a 'second wave' of COVID occurring in the fall months (Aug.-Dec.) of 2020 was 73%." 

Decision makers in health care, education, government, business, and many other areas would be wise to consider long-term planning for worst-case scenarios. March 29,2020, it was widely reported Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and the nation's top COVID-19 adviser, estimated COVID-19 may kill "between 100,000 and 200,000" in the US. In contrast with other causes of death, Dan Mangan, Tucker Higgins, John W. Schoen in an April 1, 2020 article at cnbc.com, citing CDC, NOAA, and the White House, showed heart disease in the US recently killed 647,457 a year, and cancer killed 599,108. The three main threats with COVID-19 are speed of infection and death overwhelming hospitals, effects on jobs and economy, and threat of a more lethal mutation in the second global wave in fall months.

In a previous post March 17, 2020, I wrote "Historians and scientists note the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed most of its estimated 65 million the second time it went around the Earth." This was because, according to Dave Roos at history.com, the Spanish Flu mutated into a more lethal strain. Roos wrote "Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection."