Rethinking Weather Forecasts

Recently, a professor of statistics at my college said the probability of 115 F (46 C) in Seattle before June 2021 was zero, but it happened. He added at the time there were better odds buying one lottery ticket, and winning.

In my August 4, 2021 post "Gauguin and July 2021," I wrote about "120 Fahrenheit (49°C) [ground surface temperature in Seattle, June 25, 2021, and 121.2 Fahrenheit (49.6°C) air temperature in Lytton, B. C. June 29, 2021] shattering records." Dr. Jason Box was quoted, "That's basically unlivable, at least for nature. [ . . . .] We have to prepare [for] extreme disruptions to our lives."

In my July 23, 2021 post "Climate Reality Pushback" I noted  "More than one billion marine intertidal animals [ . . . ] may have perished along the shores of the Salish Sea during the record temperatures at the end of June, [2021] said University of British Columbia researcher Chris Harley" according to Canada's nationalobserver.com journalist Rochelle Baker." I reminded readers of a heat wave that "killed or harmed three billion animals" in Australia according to a July 28, 2020 bbc.com news article.

In a related matter of extreme heat, Dani Anguiano reported in The Guardian Oct. 21, 2021 about a "California family found dead on hike killed by extreme heat, sheriff says." She wrote, "Temperatures were in the 70s when the family started their hike, but climbed as high as 108F as they made their way through the trail. [ . . . . ] An 85-ounce (2.5-litre) water container the family had with them was empty, and they had no other water. There is no cellphone reception on the trail." 

Here in Washington State, the morning of October 24, 2021, I left the Vancouver area to fish near Mt. Hood when a National Weather Service Emergency Alert cut into the Oregon Public Broadcasting/NPR program I was listening to regarding a Category 5 "atmospheric river" headed just north of Vancouver, Washington that could rip roofs from houses. Before driving, I heard about the threat to northern California and southern Oregon, but nothing about a serious weather warning in my area.

People in northern Clark County, Washington were advised to shelter in lower rooms to wait it out. One person I spoke with said, "The weather people don't know anymore."

Today Monica Garrett, Jason Hanna and Dave Hennen reported about severe weather at cnn.com regarding "A nor'easter drenches the East Coast, spurring flash flooding and water rescues in northern New Jersey." The article noted, "The storm, expected to deliver about 2 to 6 inches of rain in short order over several states, led the governors of New Jersey and New York to declare states of emergency in advance, just weeks after Hurricane Ida left severe flooding there in early September. [ . . . . ] In New Jersey's Union Beach south of New York City, floodwaters trapped some vehicles, and emergency workers made more than a dozen water rescues late Monday into early Tuesday, Union Beach Police Chief Michael Woodrow said. [ . . . . ] [New Jersey] Gov. Phil Murphy delayed the opening of state government offices until 11 a.m. to allow workers ample time to arrive [, noting] 'If you're out on our roads and come across a flooded section, please just turn around -- don't go ahead. Sadly, we lost too many people in Ida who went ahead.'"

Oct. 25, 2021, CapRadio Staff reported at capradio.org "Sacramento sets rainfall record as atmospheric river passes through Northern California." The article noted, "A week ago, Sacramento broke a record of 212 consecutive days without rain. Then yesterday it set a record with more than 5 inches of rain in a single day. [ . . . .] But these sort of extreme swings — from incredibly dry to cyclone bombs and atmospheric rivers — could become more common as climate change warms California."

What next?

October 2021, Near a Washington State River

October 2021, Near a Washington State River

On my truck gate, pulling up waders,
branches snap in morning dark as a cougar stalks me.

When it gets closer, I re-enter and wait until
a fellow angler arrives and we descend in canyon.

We split at two trails, and the cougar follows me.
I toss rocks and yell at it.

Later, under stars, I reflect if this were
a metaphor for global climate response,

I would wear a blindfold, hang a T-bone steak
on my neck, go back in forest whispering

“Here kitty, kitty,” and hope nothing happens. 

In other poetry news, I'm grateful to former Associate Professor of English and Creative Writing at University of Alabama Heidi Lynn Staples for accepting my poem "When I Lived Upriver" in her project Hold Our Breath 2040: Artists and Writers Reimagine Forestation, an international creative digital commemoration of afforestation efforts to address climate change. I also appreciate Flyfishing & Tying Journal for including two of my poems in the next issue. 

Thank you to the recent 222 visitors from Sweden, 117 from Russia, 92 from Germany, 18 from Hong Kong, 18 from Senegal, 17 from Canada, 17 from Indonesia, 10 from United Kingdom, and 5 from Spain.

I Found Some of my 2006 Clay Art in the Garage

Donated to Washington State University, Vancouver Library

Recent words of climate desperation are not encouraging. Jeff Goodell's excellent 10/1/21 Rolling Stone article "Joe Manchin Just Cooked the Planet" noted, "As climate journalist Amy Westervelt put it with characteristic aplomb: 'The change these motherfuckers are signing us up for is so many times more radical than any climate policy ever proposed.'" Goodell continued, "You can argue that the real action on climate happens at the local level. Or that the astounding decline in clean energy prices will drive the revolution. But without a big push from government, it won’t happen fast enough, nor will the deep injustices of climate chaos be addressed in any meaningful way." 

Similarly, US Climate Envoy John Kerry was quoted by cnn.com's Nada Bashir 10/2/21, "We are behind and we have to stop the B.S. that is being thrown at us by a number of countries that have not been willing to sign up to what Great Britain have signed up to, we have signed up to, Japan, Canada [,] the EU. That is to keep 1.5 degrees alive [ . . . . ] That's what has to happen at COP26, a new level of transparency and accountability."

However, I also recall Joanna Macy's words, "Don't pour all your energy into defeating what is already defeating itself at the core [ . . . . ] People know that the whole life on Earth is in danger. They are aware of it in their bodies at any rate. Help them to feel the strength to feel life within them, and move together [ . . . . ]"  

About 15 years ago, I feared this climate emergency would happen so I used the energy of that to make clay art. Putting my hands in clay was one of the most healing things I have done. The art was made with bones of salmon and steelhead trout I caught in Oregon and Washington rivers, and ate.

I included work featured at the The Spirit of the Salmon Fund's Wy-Kan-Ush-Pum "Salmon People" Gala in Portland, Oregon below. When all else fails, make art, sing, do activist work, hike in nature, set an example. Some things are in one's control, some are not, and all are in control of, or allowed by, the Creator. Joanna Macy's translation of Rilke is:

Dear darkening ground,

you’ve endured so patiently the walls we’ve built,

perhaps you’ll give the cities one more hour

and the churches and cloisters two.

And maybe those that labor—You'll let their work

still grip them for another five hours, or seven,

before you become forest again, and water, and wilderness

in that hour of inconceivable terror

where you take back your name

from all things.

Oh, just give me a little more time!

I am going to love the things 

as no one has thought to love them,

until they’re real, and ripe, and worthy of us.