Video used with permission of Aspen Strategy Group.
In the above video Pulitzer-winning science reporter Laurie Garrett and New York Times writer David Leonhardt give an overview of the COVID-19 situation in the United States as they explain "How COVID-19 Will Reshape the Globe." Garrett notes regarding "economic disruption," "I'm looking at it from the 50,000 foot level, and if you look at the IMF details regarding their projected negative 8.5 % GDP for the United States, negative 4.8 GDP for the world for this year, if you look at the Eurobank projections for the European region, the Asia Development Bank projections for that region, they're all really grim [ . . . ]. You can start going through the list in your mind of governments/countries, and then here inside the United States of cities and counties that were already facing problems A, B, C, then COVID came in, and one more problem. NOAA just put out their forecast for this summer's hurricane season. They're calling it a historic season coming with 22 hurricanes and tropical storms due to slam the United States between now and October. [ . . . .] They're saying at least 9 of them will reach major hurricane status."
Laurie Garrett's Twitter page linked David Wallace-Wells' nymag.com//intelligencer article "California Has Australian Problems Now" noting "Over just the last seven days, 700,000 acres have burned in California [ . . . . ] Update August 25, 2020 -- The Guardian reported "an Associated Press reporter and photographer hiked the renowned Redwood Trail at Big Basin Redwoods state park on Monday and confirmed most of the ancient redwoods had withstood the blaze."
Yesterday at The Guardian Adam Gabbatt reported "Almost 250,000 people are under fire evacuation orders and warnings in California, as three huge fires continue to rage around the San Francisco Bay Area."
November 24, 2019 and December 14, 2019 I warned "U. S. winter is Australia's summer so it's vital to watch what is happening in Australia 'with summer yet to start' according to Nine News Australia to preview the trend of possible U. S. climate impacts June through September 2020. The 40.9 C Melbourne's 'hottest November day on record' equals 105.6 F." In my December 14, 2019 post I added "The slowness of meaningful COP response is like being at a party inside a house on fire where so-called leaders are fighting over the last bag of chips. I recall a Shell CEO told Hans Schellnhuber (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), 'The climate problem is real but it is completely intractable. You can not solve it. So, let's get rich quick before the world ends, huh?'"
UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote on his blog Weather West, "Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented -- As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. It’s truly astonishing. By the time this post is published [Aug. 21, 2020], around 800,000 acres of land will have burned over the past 8 days in California–over 700,000 of which in the northern part of the state, and about 500,000 within 100 miles of San Francisco. For perspective: less than 250,000 acres burned in California in all of 2019. There are so many fires right now that multiple wildfires under 5,000 acres have gone largely unattended, and unmentioned in the media. CalFire stated earlier today that to fight these fires to the maximum of their ability, the agency would [need] nearly 10 times more firefighting resources than are available."
In a related matter, Bill Gates' blog GatesNotes August 4 post "COVID-19 is awful. Climate change could be worse." reported "If you want to understand the kind of damage that climate change will inflict, look at COVID-19 and spread the pain out over a much longer period of time. The loss of life and economic misery caused by this pandemic are on par with what will happen regularly if we do not eliminate the world’s carbon emissions. [ . . . . ] In other words, by 2060 climate change could be just as deadly as COVID-19, and by 2100 it could be five times as deadly. [par break] The economic picture is also stark. The range of likely impacts from climate change and from COVID-19 varies quite a bit, depending on which economic model you use. But the conclusion is unmistakable: In the next decade or two, the economic damage caused by climate change will likely be as bad as having a COVID-sized pandemic every ten years."
Regarding the climate issue, I recently taught another poetry workshop at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Masters of Advanced Studies in Climate Science and Policy (MAS CSP), like I did last year. Students in this interdisciplinary program are excellent, and it will take the best of their hearts and minds to respond to these challenges.
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