A Good Time to Pray (post recycled from 1/9/18)

This is the first time I recycled a post. I thought it odd this post was visted recently until I read it again.

Today I saw James Temple's  December 6, 2017 article "Global Warming’s Worst-Case Projections Look Increasingly Likely" in MIT Technology Review citing a paper in Nature that claimed "under the the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s [IPCC's] steepest  prediction for greenhouse-gas concentrations [ . . . . ] the odds that temperatures will increase more than 4 [°C over pre-industrial level . . . ] by 2100 in this so-called 'business as usual' scenario increased from 62 percent to 93 percent." For context, consider the newly complied data means a prediction "15 percent hotter than the previous estimate" following a pattern of the situation being much worse than thought.

Consider what an increase of 4 °C over pre-industrial level means. In a December 31, 2013, article in The Guardian by Damian Carrington, Professor Steven Sherwood, at the University of New South Wales, in Australia, said "4C would likely be catastrophic rather than simply dangerous [ . . . ] For example, it would make life difficult, if not impossible, in much of the tropics, and would guarantee the eventual melting of the Greenland ice sheet and some of the Antarctic ice sheet."

If Greenland melts, it has been widely reported seas will rise "6 meters (20 feet),"  and if the Antarctic Ice Sheet melts, "60 meters (197 feet)."

Below I wrote we need a modern Alan Turing (invented computer science) with enough vision to matter. However, the more one looks into the scale and trends, the more obvious it is that social engineering is needed as much as technological geoengineering, especially since, as was noted below by Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam University Professor of Physics of the Oceans, speaking at the 2017 Bonn Climate Conference, geoengineering is unlikely to work. Many people cringe when they hear the term "social engineering" so how about "global social awakening"?

Robert Bly's book The Light Around the Body quotes Jacob Boehme (1575-1624): "For according to the outward man, we are in this world, and according to the inward man, we are in the inward world…. Since then we are generated out of both worlds, we speak in two languages, and we must be understood also by two languages." and

"Dear children, look in what a dungeon we are lying, in
what lodging we are, for we have been captured by the spirit
of the outward world; it is our life, for it nourishes and
brings us up, it rules in our marrow and bones, in our flesh
and blood, it has made our flesh earthly, and now death has us."

It is possible the IPCC is wrong, but probably not.

If you are a prayerful person, now would be good.  I recall in Leonardo Dicaprio's Before the Flood, he met with my favorite Pope, Francis. Dicaprio noted "He said that as far as the Paris Conference is concerned, he felt was a step in the right direction, but certainly not enough. He feels we all need to keep speaking out about this issue as loud as we can, and that we must immediately take action. But more than anything, he said to pray for the human race."

If space aliens are watching, children of the same God, I hope they don't follow a Star Trek-like "Prime Directive" or "Temporal Prime Directive."

If they are following those, or aren't watching, it's up to you, me, and anyone willing to help.

Poem for COP28 in East Fork Eagle Creek, Columbia Gorge; James Hansen's "Global warming in the pipeline" (revised 23 May 2023) notes "Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today's human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today's aerosols."; British Antarctic Survey researcher Dr. Kaitlin Naughten says "It looks like we’ve lost control of melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet." meaning, according to a related video, "slow addition of nearly 6 feet [1.8 meters] to sea levels" "in hundreds of years."

Poem for COP28
in East Fork Eagle Creek,
Columbia Gorge

Below 172-foot Tunnel Falls

a dead deer,

maybe from crossing

swift winter current.

 

I’m guessing

when flesh hit basalt

it ended quick.

Soon, coyotes would feast.

 

I knew it was metaphor

for something big

but didn’t know how big.

In a related matter, James Hansen's "Global warming in the pipeline" (revised 23 May 2023) appeared with this abstract:

"Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era -- including 'slow' feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases -- supports this ECS and implies that CO2 was about 300 ppm in the Pliocene and 400 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, thus exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today's human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today's aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Under the current geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will likely pierce the 1.5°C ceiling in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and 3) intervention with Earth's radiation imbalance to phase down today's massive human-made 'geo-transformation' of Earth's climate. These changes will not happen with the current geopolitical approach, but current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation."

As a reminder, Gregor Aisch at Datawrapper provided this "[ . . . 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C] Degrees of Global Warming" graphic based on the Raftery et.al, 2017 article "Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely," in Nature Climate Change, and "Inspired" by Josh Holder, Niko Kommenda and Jonathan Watts' article in The Guardian, "The three-degree world: the cities that will be drowned by global warming."

In more bad news, October 23, 2023 eurekalert.org quoted British Antarctic Survey researcher Dr. Kaitlin Naughten, "It looks like we’ve lost control of melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If we wanted to preserve it in its historical state, we would have needed action on climate change decades ago. The bright side is that by recognising this situation in advance, the world will have more time to adapt to the sea level rise that’s coming. If you need to abandon or substantially re-engineer a coastal region, having 50 years lead time is going to make all the difference."

This October 23, 2023 Associated Press YouTube featuring Naughten notes, "The full melt will take hundreds of years, but its slow addition of nearly 6 feet [1.8 meters] to sea levels will reshape where and how people live." She adds, "I definitely don't want people to read this study and say, 'Oh, there isn't any hope. We should just give up.' because the West Antarctic is not the whole world. There are so many other impacts of climate change that we probably still can avoid even if this isn't one of them."

Regarding recent humanitarian issues, please donate to Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders to help those suffering in Gaza, and for its offer to support the injured in Israel. I have supported Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders for many years, and greatly respect their work.

Thinking About Antarctica

One of my most-visted posts August 4, 2023 quotes Graham Readfearn at The Guardian, July 29, 2023, and others, "[In Antarctica] an area bigger than Mexico has failed to freeze, worrying scientists." Jess Thomson reported at newsweek.com July 26, 2023, "Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor of mathematics and computer science, using data from Japan's National Institute of Polar Research" noted, the recent Antarctic melt is "about a 1-in-2.7[million] year event."

I am grateful to Amsterdam Quarterly for publishing my poem about Antarctica in the September 2023 issue which I hope doesn't come true. 

I also had a poem in their Autumn 2016 issue on Climate (Change), a poem in May 2014 called "Of Whales and the Hinckley Hunt on Christmas Eve, 1818," and a poem in September 2013 called "At Lake Absarraca" about rewilding buffalo and elk.

My favorite recent climate article is "A climate of the unthinkable on a burning Earth" by Andrew Y. Glikson October 26, 2023 at arctic-news.blogspot.com. I also appreciate the article he noted about Antarctic ecologist Dana Bergstrom and others silenced and/or punished for speaking. That article at abc.net.au/news notes, "Ecologists and climate scientists have told the ABC of a widespread culture of suppression and self-censorship. [par break] Sometimes it’s insidious, driven by the fear of losing funding or contracts. [par break] Sometimes it’s overt, through active gagging or academic careers being threatened. [par break] All of that for attempting to 'speak the truth' about environmental damage, ecosystem collapse and climate change."

I recently told a group where I was invited to speak that watching University of Manchester professor Kevin Anderson interview Johan Rockström, co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, made me grateful to be a climate poet because "Rockström seemed restrained by his position, but a poet is free of what I call The Four Horsemen of Distraction: stakeholders, funding sources, constituencies, and agendas."

Cain and Abel

Other Christians and I were discussing what a climate sermon would be. At first, I suggested the story of Gideon which shows how a small group of committed people make all the difference when supported by God. Later, I thought the story of Cain and Abel may be better. I mean Cain did not give his best gifts to God, while Abel did. Out of jealousy, Cain killed Abel.

Genesis 4:9 notes, "Then the Lord said to Cain, 'Where is your brother Abel?'

'I don’t know,' he replied. 'Am I my brother’s keeper?'"

Genesis 4:10 notes, "The Lord said, 'What have you done? Listen! Your brother’s blood cries out to me from the ground. [ . . . . ]'"

Regarding the climate emergency, the story of Cain and Abel is important for two reasons. First, are we giving our best gifts to God to reduce suffering? Second, we are our brother's keeper. Specifically, Dr. Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and one of the Pope's climate advisors, noted in a 2018 meeting I attended, "It would take $450 per person per year in the top one billion people to change from our carbon economy to renewables" saving over 3 billion people that may otherwise die from exposure to 130 degree [54.4 Celsius] plus heat 30 years from now if humans fail to convert energy sources from coal and fossil fuels to "solar, wind, hydro, and possibly nuclear. [ . . . . ]" Based on what Ramanathan said in 2018, we now have 5 to 10 years "to solve the problem."

Rumi said, "God is the only real customer."

Art for Global Political Leaders Before COP28

Saturn Devouring His Son by Francisco Goya  (1746–1828) 

The official position taken by the Wikimedia Foundation is that "faithful reproductions of two-dimensional public domain works of art are public domain". This photographic reproduction is therefore also considered to be in the public domain in the United States. In other jurisdictions, re-use of this content may be restricted; see Reuse of PD-Art photographs for details.

Wiki notes Goya, extremely frustrated with political leaders of his time, secretly painted this on a wall in his house. It's obvious since James Hansen's U.S. Senate climate testimony 35 years ago, global political leaders have been "devouring" their children, and yours.

Hansen was later quoted, "Coal is the single greatest threat to civilization and all life on our planet. . . . the dirtiest trick that governments play on their citizens is that they are working for ‘clean coal.’ . . .The trains carrying coal to power plants are death trains. Coal-fired power plants are factories of death."

Similarly, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, noted in my August 25, 2018 post, "In Germany we should focus everything on the phase out of coal." Recent reports show now is a good time to phase out coal, and all fossil fuels, everywhere as soon as possible.

Climate Story

I ran Climate Conversations for professors and students two years at one of the colleges where I taught. In one meeting I tried to make it simple. I said, "It's like we're on a plane that pilots will crash into a cliff [unless they get political clearance to land which seems unlikely]. There are some parachutes, but not enough for most people."

"I don't like your airplane story," a professor challenged, adding something like, "I don't see it that way at all. I don't think we're all going to die."

"I didn't say everyone," I replied, then repeated, "There are some parachutes, but not enough for most people."

My February 23, 2020 post "Climate Lifeboats of the Rich and Famous?" explores how Earth's wealthiest, Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, allegedly "bought -- then didn't buy" superyachts as they "can't go to Mars yet to escape or wait out climate chaos, [so] the sea may be the next best thing." About two years later I posted "The Last Two Men on Earth" noting, "Playing their cards right, they may be the last two surviving humans, as neurons shut down like light switches in Halloween mansions, and words fade as in flooded seaside libraries."

Unfortunately, the "cliff" in my plane story is fast approaching for those glancing up from their cell phones to look out the reality window. Crew members are telling everyone to "Calm down!" For example, U. S. Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry called UAE appointment of oil chief Sultan al-Jaber to oversee COP28 UN climate talks "a terrific choice" according to several sources. Let's see if Kerry feels that way after COP28 ends in December. 

Similary, Johan Rockström, co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in a video I posted September 19, 2023, "[ . . . . ] For an orderly phaseout [of fossil fuels] I think The Marshall Plan option is simply not an option. [ . . . . ]" Will Rockström feel that way in ten years at the end of 2033?

In contrast to Kerry and Rockström, I agree with actress Keira Knightley who imagines children asking in this short video, "The science and data were all there for everyone to see. Why didn't you stop this while you still could?" She adds, "Our governments must enter crisis mode before it's too late, urgently investing in and implementing policies to reduce carbon in the atmosphere." 

Another Extinction Rebellion video I like is by former UK police officers Rob Cooper, John Curran, and Richard Ecclestone. 

Rumi, translated by Daniel Liebert in the book RUMI - FRAGMENTS - ECSTACIES, said "[ . . . . ] don't flee across the chessboard of this world, for it is [God's] game and we are checkmate! checkmate!" In other words, it's best not to resist God and nature.

I am also grateful to Coleman Barks who in 2017 gave me permission to include his translation of Rumi's "An Empty Garlic," still one of the most-read posts here. 

Two Questions Before COP28

I was encouraged by former UN chief Christiana Figueres' comments reported by The Guardian's Dharna Noor September 21, 2023, "If [fossil fuel companies] are going to be [at COP28] only to be obstructors, and only to put spanners into the system, they should not be there.” The subtitle notes, "‘My patience ran out,’ said Christiana Figueres, who for years had advocated oil companies should be involved in policymaking talks." 

This complements my November 28, 2022, post "Circus" COPS and Civil Society "Clowns," and my November 21, 2022 post "Good COP, Bad COP" in which I wrote, "To use a football metaphor, imagine a fullback dropping the ball 27 consecutive games. Maybe it's time to get a new fullback. [par break] In this case, that means two separate COPs each year, one with fossil fuel interests, and one without. Global media, governments, and citizens could decide which COP to focus on. [ . . . . ] Politicians and Big Oil executives have children too, and may eventually see the shared responsibility to protect all children in every country. Unfortunately, the global community, especially in the global south, can't wait another 10 years or longer."

Similarly, Sandra Laville wrote in The Guardian June 22, 2023, "The Church of England is divesting from fossil fuels in its multibillion pound endowment and pension funds over climate concerns and what the church claims are recent U-turns by oil and gas companies."  Laville noted, "Responding to the announcement, Jennifer Larbie, Christian Aid’s head of global advocacy, said: 'It is telling that the Church of England, which has worked tirelessly to engage with the oil and gas industry and shift it on to a sustainable approach, has decided that these companies are beyond the pale.'"

Recently, the UK and Sweden seem to be following the advice of a Shell CEO who told Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Founding Director of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, "The climate problem is real but it is completely intractable. You can not solve it. So, let's get rich quick before the world ends, huh?" I included Schellnhuber's words in my August 25, 2018 post before the video was deleted. 

In other words, as I wrote in my October 10, 2022 post, "Deactivating Big Oil now will likely be no less dramatic than Deactivation of Hal 9000."

Here are two questions for my readers in 110 countries:

1) What would a Nonviolent Political D-Day look like at some future COP?

2) Would you like to do this before or after Earth's coral reefs are bleached, Amazon rainforest is gone, and island nations are submerged?

Late 2023 and Summer 2024 look bleak from various forecasts. In my previous post I linked Dave Borlace's video The heat may not kill you, but the global food crisis might! - September 17, 2023, in which he noted a Mintec August 21, 2023 paper with "forecast updates [ . . . ] pointing towards a Very Strong El Nino event [ . . . ] triggering extreme and potentially destructive weather globally," and a Barclay's January 2023 paper noting "extreme weather" as one of three factors in "the current predicament" [ . . . . ] "with the food price volatility further exposing the fragility of our global food system: rising food insecurity, social unrest, human displacement and migration are all possible effects."

I also chose Dave Borlace's new video Big Oil, Big Lies and Big Al... as one of my favorites. It was posted yesterday, and already has 87,496 views. 

Johan Rockström, IPCC, and World Leaders Bet Human Future on Fantasy-Scale Direct Air Capture, and Carbon Capture/Storage

Video begins at 33:47.

Unsaid in the above video is that world leaders would rather use risky, and possibly war-producing, unilateral geoengineering than lose privilege and negative emission technologies fantasy. 

As Al Gore, former Harvard Fellow Ye Tao, and Kevin Anderson (above) have clearly shown, negative emission technologies are not realistic solutions given scale, rate of climate change, and time it will take these machines/devices to make meaningful carbon reductions. Instead, fossil fuel use must be quickly cut. God and the universe have given us a winning lottery ticket with a blue planet supporting life, and world leaders are trashing it.

In the above video Johan Rockström says at 33:47: "If you take away negative emission technologies, you would exceed 10 percent [on mitigation pathways to reduce carbon] very rapidly [to meet our goals]. You would be more than 10 to 15 percent. [ . . . ] That's not revolution. That is a complete disruption of the global economy. [ . . . ] I mean then you need to bulldoze down coal-fire plants basically. You would be in a compete global Marshall Plan. It's a war zone agenda."

Kevin Anderson responds, "[ . . . . ] Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position. [ . . . . ] Our way out of the Marshall Plan is to say we are going to have these negative emissions. I think we need to say that, okay, that's one way out of it -- if they work. Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan. [ . . . .] I would have a guess when we say 'That's not feasible.' many people elsewhere in the world say, 'Of course it's feasible. We've been living like that for years.' And other people live good quality of lives in the developing countries as well [ . . . ] with much lower consumption than we have on average in the global north, let alone the wealthy of us in the global north. [ . . . . ]" 

Rockström responds, "[ . . . . ] For an orderly phaseout [of fossil fuels] I think The Marshall Plan option is simply not an option. [ . . . . ]"

Anderson acknowledged, "I'm not against doing these technologies. I think we should be researching them. Deploy them if they meet broader sustainability, ecological, and social sustainability criteria. [ . . . . ] But to deeply rely on [negative emission technologies] in all of our models is to me a systemic bias, and it has stopped us asking other questions. [ . . . . ] We, as [an academic] community here, have not served society well because we have closed that debate down."

I agree with Anderson about the problem of relying on negative emission technologies. I recall Al Gore's criticism of a direct air capture machine, "They're improving this, and [in] the new model seven years from now each of these machines is going to be able to capture 27 seconds worth of annual emissions."

Prof. David Kipping, Carl Sagan Fellow at Harvard College Observatory, made an excellent video September 19, 2023 called Direct Air Capture Vs Thermodynamics to help readers understand the enormous challenges. 

My third favorite recent video is Dave Borlace's The heat may not kill you, but the global food crisis might! - September 17, 2023. I was also impressed by one of the saddest, and most honest, cartoons I have seen August 28, 2023 done by First Dog on the Moon in The Guardian called I only read about climate change now because I have to.

Given our small window of opportunity to avoid worst climate impacts, negative emission technologies appear nowhere near as good as a Hail Mary pass thrown by a rookie quarterback with an injured elbow against the wind.

To be clear, stakes are high. Founding director of the Potsdam Institute Hans Joachim Schellnhuber was quoted by Paddy Manning in a July 9, 2011 article in The Sydney Morning Herald: "in a 4 degree warmer world, the population ' . . . . carrying capacity estimates [are] below one billion people.'" Today theworldcounts.com notes Earth's population is over 8 billion. 

December 3, 2019 I suggested "Barry McGuire's protest song 'Eve of Destruction' written by P. F. Sloan in 1964 is a good COP25 theme song." The same goes for COP26, COP27, and it seems from Al Gore's comments COP28 (Nov 30, 2023 – Dec 12, 2023).

Climate Disasters Are Here, and Worse Predicted to Come

I was fishing in Canada, and took a lunch break in a lodge where I sat beside two men in heated conversation. I wrote about this in my September 6, 2018 post. One was jilted by an attractive woman, and ranted about the injustice. The other listened awhile then said, "Look around!" In other words, "Notice reality around you." Similarly, fossil fuels have been attractive, yet deadly. I mean, "Look around!" at recent climate-related events: Maui, California, Washington State, Florida, Vermont, Phoenix, Kelowna B.C., Indonesia, Slovenia, Tenerife, Beijing, Niger, Algeria, Morocco, Norway, Chile and Argentina. 

What should one do? I like Joanna Macy's story about Thich Nhat Hanh at the start of this video, "When he was asked, 'What's the most important thing we can do for the sake of life on Earth?' And I think his questioners were asking, you know, should we work in the system, or sit on a zafu, or meditate, or climb the barricades? [ . . . . ] He said, 'What we most need to do is to hear within ourselves the sounds of the Earth crying.'"

Nhat Hanh's advice seems like a good first step to help people know where to go, and what to do.

Al Gore "Hot and Bothered" About Big Oil's "Carbon Capture and Storage" and "Direct Air Capture" Plans

August 17, 2023 Update -- CBS News anchor Errol Barnett interviewed Washington Post reporter Evan Halper about the multibillion dollar "Giant Direct Air Capture Vacuums" being built in Texas and Louisiana, and planned for other states. Halper said, "You just need to look outside to know the situation is desperate, and [ . . . ] we're way behind where we need to be in terms of cutting emissions, in terms of transitioning away from fossil fuels, and so we're looking at these other kind of moonshot ideas [ . . . . ] There is a case to be made that they can be part of a solution, but [ . . . ] on the flip side there is worry [ . . . ] these technologies that don't really even work yet are going to give people a sense of complacency that [ . . . ] there is a technological solution to this, and lifestyles don't need to be changed, and this is getting figured out when it really isn't." In response, I agree with Al Gore and former Harvard Fellow Ye Tao below. Tao said, "Any form of direct air capture by industrial method will not be able to work at scale, and to make a measurable impact to the climate crisis in less than several centuries of time. The basic reason is the process of demixing the air is a highly energy-intensive process. Just imagine if you had to separate a pile of well-mixed salt and pepper [ . . . . ]"

In other words, the Vacuums seem as crazy as the "BASH operation fails" scene in the film Don't Look Up -- except this time the stakes are real life. It was amusing/terrifying, in a tragicomedy-way, when Barnett asked Halper in the CBS News Vacuum story above, "This is the kind of thing that sounds like a joke, right? Is this a parody? I'm wondering are we out of ideas as far as just putting less CO2 into the atmosphere?"

Similarly, in Gore's TED Talk above at 14:05, he shows what looks like long pillow cases behind a Direct Air Capture Vacuum. Gore says, "This is state of the art. Looks pretty impressive, doesn't it?" Audience laughter can be heard, to which Gore replies, "I had the same thought. [ . . . . ] They're improving this, and [in] the new model seven years from now each of these machines is going to be able to capture 27 seconds worth of annual emissions."

President Biden should have listened to Gore's recent angry TED Talk before Biden continued to support "$1.2 billion to help build the nation’s first two commercial-scale plants to vacuum carbon dioxide pollution" as quoted by New York Times reporter Coral Davenport August 11, 2023. She added, "The 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law included $3.5 billion to fund the construction of four commercial-scale direct air capture plants. Friday’s announcement covered the first two." Davenport summarized Gore's above TED Talk, "Gore gave a blistering critique of direct air capture technology, calling its use a 'moral hazard' that would enable fossil fuel producers to continue to pollute. [par break] 'It’s useful to give them an excuse for not ever stopping oil,' he said. 'That gives them a license to continue producing more and more oil and gas.' [par break] Mr. Gore noted that the current cost of direct air capture technology was extraordinarily high and that the process required so much energy that it would make more sense to prevent carbon emissions in the first place rather than try to clean them up after the fact. Oil and gas companies say that the costs will fall and that the processes will improve in the coming years."

Regarding that last sentence above, in my February 19, 2022 post, I quoted former Harvard Fellow Ye Tao, "Any form of direct air capture by industrial method will not be able to work at scale, and to make a measurable impact to the climate crisis in less than several centuries of time. The basic reason is the process of demixing the air is a highly energy-intensive process. Just imagine if you had to separate a pile of well-mixed salt and pepper. So to create order out of disorder takes a lot of energy, and that is guaranteed by the laws of thermodynamics. So it doesn't really matter how much engineering you put onto it. We need an operation the size of the U. S. Military six thousand years [ . . . ] to really achieve what these companies are calling for."

Al Gore should have ended his TED Talk with a more angry, "DIVEST NOW!" He should have mentioned the need to "Dynamite The Energy Charter Treaty" noted by Dr Julia Steinberger July 9, 2023 at Nick Breeze ClimateGenn. Steinberger noted, "[Big Oil companies] have been acting in such a way that their social license should be removed." Céline Keller's comic book Dawn Of The ECT, available in multiple languages, was highlighted.

President Biden must listen to former Harvard Fellow Ye Tao.

Last week I told a professor about Michael Mann's October 2020 claim, as noted 24:35 in Gore's TED Talk, "Once the world reaches net zero CO2 emissions global temperatures will stop increasing in as soon as three to five years." Crossing tipping points, it seems, may make this a missed opportunity. 

Regarding level of crisis, writer/editor Jeff Goodell said in a Jul 21, 2023 Ten Across video at 40:47 geoengineering is "a very dangerous idea [ . . . ] a lot of people tell me personally I should not be talking about, and [ . . . . ] we don't know how things will go, if this will mess up the monsoons that bring water for millions of people in Asia. It could have all kinds of unexpected consequences, but I think that it's an important thing to talk about openly because we are moving in that direction. I think it's an important thing to have good legitimate scientists really looking at it so we understand better what the risks are, and I think it's emblematic of the really dumb stuff we may be doing as this emergency gets deeper and deeper, and clearer and clearer. And we're going in that direction. It's a doable thing, and I kind of think, to be honest, it's inevitable for better or for worse. And that's a very scary thought."

It was reported by DW News, August 24, 2022, China used geoengineering, as the country said it would, in a desperate effort to save it's 2022 fall harvest.

I'm grateful The Washington Post reporter Kate Selig wrote August 14, 2023, "Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision." She noted, it's "the first ruling of its kind nationwide," and "The ruling could influence how judges handle similar cases in other states." My June 5, 2023 post noted, "Juliana v. United States filed by Our Children’s Trust is back on. According to a June 1, 2023 Associated Press article at columbian.com, the 2015 suit was heard by 'A three-member panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals [that] dismissed the case in 2020 after finding that [U.S. District Court Judge] Aiken lacked the power to order or design a climate recovery plan sought in the lawsuit. [par break] The plaintiffs then filed an amended complaint asking to change their lawsuit to seek a ruling that the nation’s fossil fuel-based energy system is unconstitutional.'"

Amazon Rainforest, Global Coral Reefs, and Bukowski

May 11, 2023, NASA scientist Peter Kalmus wrote, "I was just at a NASA team meeting for 3 days in DC. The scientific findings are so fucked up. Experts on tropical rainforests told me privately that they think the Amazon has already passed its tipping point. Let that sink in. The world needs to know." I thought, In addition to loss of all those animal, bird, fish, plant, and insect species, all those gorgeous living colors, unknown-by-us medicines and foods, what are the estimated 400 Amazon rainforest tribes supposed to do?

This reminds me of when the very conservative IPCC reported October 8, 2018, in section B.4.2. of its SPECIAL REPORT: GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5 ºC -- Summary for Policymakers, "Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline [ . . . ] (>99%) at 2°C (very high confidence)." I wrote in my November 24, 2019 post, "I have seen pushback claiming humanity is not in a climate crisis, but tell that to the estimated 500 million to 1 billion people depending on those coral reefs for food and/or jobs that will clearly be lost unless some miracle science, not yet invented, saves them." 

In my April 12, 2023 post I quoted former Harvard Fellow Ye Tao, "two degrees is already passed [no matter what we do]" and "At three degrees C [above year 1850 baseline] we're talking about planetary scale biological annihilation of any multicellular species [ . . . ]"

Raised in Oregon, I have a strong emotional connection to nature as in the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs. I could sit in a corner and cry for a thousand years, but I don't think that would help. In one of my most-visted posts, "PLAYA Climate Change Discussion July 7, 2016," I imagined the Ghost of Bukowski saying near an Eastern Oregon stream, "we must find/some way//to make joy/no matter what."

One writer said to me something like, "Okay, so maybe we will lose many things, but we will adapt. Life goes on. Get over it."  It seems cruel to say those things to Amazon tribes, island nations, Oregonians, and all those living close to nature. I recall poet Ted Hughes described the silvery side of a steelhead trout he had just caught as "metabolism of stars." Contrast this with blind pale fish in caves. What kind of world are we leaving for the newly born and yet unborn? What, if anything, can be saved? How do we "make joy/no matter what"? Rumi said, "Look for the answer inside your question."

Climate Resilience Hubs, and Pulitzer Prize-finalist Abrahm Lustgarten Reports "present pathway [ . . . . ] could lead to 2 billion people falling outside of the climate niche within just the next eight years, and 3.7 billion doing so by 2090"

Erin Stone reported July 31, 2023, at laist.com/news "How Resilience Hubs Can Help Communities Face The Heat And The Climate Emergency." Her article noted, "In 2021, the state [of California] launched the Community Resilience Centers program to support and speed up resilience hub efforts [ . . . . ] [It was] originally allocated $160 million, [but] has already seen significant cuts — the first round makes $98 million available and there’s no guarantee the program will continue, said Amar Azucena Cid, a deputy director with the Strategic Growth Council."

Stone added, "These are buildings that are already well-used and trusted in a community, that can provide helpful resources outside of air conditioning, water and some board games to play. They’re retrofitted with solar panels and battery power so they can ride out a disaster." Climate Resolve Resilience Coordinator Andres Rodriguez was quoted about one hub, "It's a cooling space, but it's also a healing space."

In my September 9, 2022 letter about preparing for climate refugees at The Columbian, the main newspaper for Vancouver, Washington, I wrote, "Some things to consider: cooling centers, vacant lots into gardens, community-building workshops." Resilience hubs Stone noted have the first, third, and more.

Pulitzer Prize-finalist environmental reporter Abrahm Lustgarten wrote June 6, 2023, at propublica.org, "Climate change is remapping where humans can exist on the planet. As optimum conditions shift away from the equator and toward the poles, more than 600 million people have already been stranded outside of a crucial environmental niche that scientists say best supports life. By late this century, according to a study published last month in the journal Nature Sustainability, 3 to 6 billion people, or between a third and a half of humanity, could be trapped outside of that zone, facing extreme heat, food scarcity and higher death rates, unless emissions are sharply curtailed or mass migration is accommodated." 

Lustgarten added, "According to the study, India will have, by far, the greatest population outside of the climate niche. At current rates of warming, the researchers estimate that more than 600 million Indians will be affected, six times more than if the Paris targets were achieved. In Nigeria, more than 300 million citizens will be exposed, seven times more than if emissions were steeply cut. Indonesia could see 100 million people fall out of a secure and predictable environment, the Philippines and Pakistan 80 million people each, and so on. Brazil, Australia and India would see the greatest area of land become less habitable. But in many smaller countries, all or nearly all the land would become nearly unlivable by traditional measures: Burkina Faso, Mali, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Niger. Although facing far more modest impacts, even the United States will see its South and Southwest fall toward the hottest end of the niche, leading to higher mortality and driving internal migration northward."

My May 10, 2023 post, "1939 'Voyage of the Damned' and Climate Migration," included Lustgarten's interview in the May 24, 2021 video The Great Climate Migration Has Begun | Amanpour and Company.

You may have heard, according to Graham Readfearn at The Guardian, July 29, 2023, and others, "[In Antarctica] an area bigger than Mexico has failed to freeze, worrying scientists." Jess Thomson reported at newsweek.com July 26, 2023, "Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor of mathematics and computer science, using data from Japan's National Institute of Polar Research" noted, the recent Antarctic melt is "about a 1-in-2.7[million] year event."

Antarctic melt, Arctic melt, Greenland melt, North Atlantic heat, and the AMOC possibly stopping "between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050," according to The Guardian's Damian Carrington, July 25, 2023, make "Strange days indeed,"as John Lennon sang in "Nobody Told Me." 

It is sad global leaders are not focused on immediate solutions. Instead, the COP process and U.S. Congress seem to be missing an area "bigger than Mexico" from their consciousness, and text in official decisions. Increasing fears abound about Artifical Intelligence, but it is this Artifical Stupidity for short-term profit that concerns me. It reminds me of resistance to reality of THE VERY OLD CARDINAL in Bertolt Brecht's 1938 play Life of Galileo: "I am not just any old creature on any insignificant star briefly circling in no particular place. I am walking, with a firm step, on a fixed earth, it is motionless, it is the centre of the universe, I am at the centre and the eye of the Creator falls upon me and me alone. Round about me, attached to eight crystal spheres, revolve the fixed stars and the mighty sun which has been created to light my surroundings. And myself too, that God may see me. In this way everything comes visibly and incontrovertibly to depend on me, mankind, God's great effort, the creature on whom it all centres, made in God's own image, indestructible and . . . He collapses."

I'm grateful The Association for the Study of Literature and Environment (ASLE) supported my new book BRIDGE AT THE END OF THE WORLD, San Diego Reader posted five poems from the book August 4, 2023, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Masters of Advanced Studies Program in Climate Science and Policy invited me to teach an ecopoetry workshop a fifth year. Here is a post about a workshop there in 2019.

Given recent climate news, I will repost a quote from Oregon author Ken Kesey (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and Sometimes a Great Notion) in a 1993 letter to Allen Ginsberg: "Ancient Advice Left in cave by Wise French Caveman: 'When Bigbad Shit come, no run scream hide. Try paint picture of it on wall. Drum to it. Sing to it. Dance to it. This give you handle on it.' So Twister is my try."

Heat Records and Retired Judge

Heat Records 

Various sources noted Phoenix, Arizona broke a record for consecutive days over 110 Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius) at 23 days, and counting. (Update: npr.org later reported this went on for a "31-day streak.")

It was also noted the previous record was 18 days in 1974.

These heatwaves are a global problem. July 5, 2023 in The Guardian Damien Gayle quoted Dr Karsten Haustein, a research fellow in atmospheric radiation at Leipzig University, “Chances are that the month of July will be the warmest ever, and with it the hottest month ever … ‘ever’ meaning since the Eemian, which is indeed some 120,000 years ago.”

Andrew Freedman wrote a good summary July 19, 2023, at axios.com, "Heat waves: Historic temperatures affect three continents."

Retired Judge

Recently, I met a retired judge in a park. "Everyone wants to embellish with a story," he said. "The law is simple. Either you broke it, or you didn't." One could say the same about breaking laws of physics for sustainable life in many undersea and abovesea areas. Each person is terminal, always has been. Each planet is terminal, always has been. Obviously, across the ocean of time the Universe will make more. The main thing is not to squander the gift of a salmon, orca, person, or planet like humans as a species are doing now. Regarding this, Oliver Milman's July 19, 2023 article in The Guardian, quoted James Hansen, "It means we are damned fools. We have to taste it to believe it."

With fast rate of change, I am sometimes asked if it's "game over" for all of us soon. I don't know. When this question happens, I recall a fictional scene from the 1959 film On the Beach as Fred Astaire tells about certain death in Australia from nuclear war radiation. He says, "We're all doomed, you know? The whole silly drunken pathetic lot of us. Doomed by the air we're about to breathe. We haven't got a chance!"

However, since capacity for some humans to survive is stunning, getting by on "raw bats and urine," time will tell. Life is extremely difficult for humans in some areas now, and impossible for nonhumans in many areas. Conditions are expected to get more challenging in the future no matter how much carbon is reduced how fast. Many rich and powerful men have clearly given up. 

Regarding the James Hansen vs. Michael Mann issue in my previous post, one of my favorite recent climate items is Global Warming in the Pipeline in which "Dr. Peter Carter, Paul Beckwith and Regina Valdez discuss a recent paper called ‘Global Warming in the Pipeline’ by James Hansen et al." Another favorite features Kevin Anderson in a United Nations University - EHS video made about a  month ago. Anderson, a former petrochemical industry engineer, is the professor many wish we had -- unafraid of hard questions and honest answers. Long ago I ranked him as one of my favorite climate scientists along with James Hansen, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, and Johan Rockström. One reason I chose Anderson is for his rare integrity. The United Nations University - EHS video notes, "He hasn't taken a plane since 2004."

Imagine almost everyone on Earth refusing airplane rides on the same day. Imagine almost everyone on Earth listening to justifiably frustrated young people. Imagine. 

My October 14, 2018 post "Prayer, Meditation, Rice" had recent interest. Maybe that's because it notes, "oxygen-free rice which allegedly can be stored for '10+ years' as a sort of insurance policy," or a story from a Whidbey Island friend about a creative way to help a refugee camp. Blog readers also visited "Two Literary Quotes That Fit Reducing Climate Disruption."

Bridge at the End of the World - New and Selected [Climate] Poems Won 2023 Blue Light Book Award

I'm grateful my new book of climate poems Bridge at the End of the World won a 2023 Blue Light Book Award. An ecopoem celebrates the nonhuman world, and part of humans that is anciently connected to that in our DNA, pre-industrial journeys, and unconscious. Ignoring nonhuman species, or otherwise devaluing them, harms the self, family, society, and world as the climate emergency has shown. To recognize this in global policy, it may unfortunately require larger-scale catastrophes than Hurricanes Katrina, Sandy, Harvey, Irma, and Maria; recent fires in Canada, Spain, California, Oregon, Siberia, Greece, and Turkey; runaway melting of Greenland ice sheet; potential runaway melting of Antarctica’s "Doomsday Glacier"; drought in East Africa and Central America; Asian and European floods; widespread coral bleaching of Great Barrier Reef; Australia’s 2019-2020 fires that killed or destroyed habitat for nearly three billion animals; 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome in which over "one billion marine intertidal animals may have perished along the shores of the Salish Sea" according University of British Columbia researcher Chris Harley; and estimated nearly eleven billion snow crab that likely died from one or more heat-related reasons off Alaska from 2018 to 2021.

Just like an alcoholic or drug addict who hits bottom before changing course, fossil fuel addiction will not be easily broken in developed nations most responsible. I don't believe humans have a hidden death wish, as a far-away-in-time-or-space onlooker may imagine, but rather an unacknowledged/unrealized life wish. See my 2014 "Manifesto from Poet on a Dying Planet" for more about this. In my October 10, 2022 post I wrote, "Deactivating Big Oil now will likely be no less dramatic than Deactivation of Hal 9000."

My favorite recent news items are the 1 minute 14 second video Top scientist [Hans Joachim Schellnhuber] unveils equation showing world in climate emergency from May 11, 2023; Fiona Katauskas' May 18, 2023 cartoon in The Guardian, Having trouble facing the reality of the climate crisis? Use this tried and tested method.; Bob Berwyn's May 26, 2023 Inside Climate News article "James Hansen Warns of a Short-Term Climate Shock Bringing 2 Degrees of Warming by 2050"; and May 24, 2023 BBC news video Climate crisis: Where will it be too hot to live? The BBC news video notes by 2100, "at 2.7 degrees [C above 1850 pre-idustrial baseline], what's expected if the world sticks to it's current policies, the ['extreme'] heat-exposed population will be [. . .] around two billion people." This number is based on the wrong assumption there will be no rapid temperature increase when an "ice-free" Arctic likely happens between 2025 and 2050 as I wrote about in a recent post. 

Regarding the above paragraph, this site notes "Hans Joachim Schellnhuber is Director Emeritus of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which he founded in 1992." The current Director is Johan Rockström who noted January 19, 2023 at DAVOS in this 6 minute DW News video, "We're coming closer to limits of adaptation." Berwyn's above article is interesting for several reasons. First, it shows the debate between James Hansen and Michael Mann about effects from loss of "climate-cooling sulfate aerosol particles" as regulations reduced "coal and heavy ship" emissions. Berwyn wrote, "sulfate aerosol particles shielded the planet’s surface from some of the sun’s heat for decades, and cutting them is removing the shield, leading to a rapid warmup." This is a problem according to Hansen who "posted it publicly on May 19 on a scientific discussion website, again drawing public attention to the potential for a shock of short-term warming that could devastate global food production and ecosystems." However, Berwyn also wrote Mann said, "Hansen has 'ignored a decade of new science,' and that the incorrect claims about climate sensitivity 'won’t survive peer review.'" Even though Mann is well-known for his 1998 "Hockey Stick" graph, I agree with Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler's point in Berwyn's article, "Considering that Jim Hansen’s predictions have often proven correct, it’s important that we pay close attention to what he’s saying.” 

It's also good to pay attention to Inside Climate News as it's famous for breaking the "Exxon Knew" story, along with The Los Angeles Times.

My March 29, 2020 post "Global Dimming Debate," (updated November 23, 2021) questions "scope, intensity, timescale, and solutions" regarding "climate-cooling sulfate aerosol particles," and includes meteorologist Eric Holthaus' February 8, 2018 Grist article citing this 2018 report in Geophysical Research Letters. The subtitle of Holthaus' Grist article notes, "We already have planet-cooling technology. The problem is, it’s killing us."

Juliana v. United States filed by Our Children’s Trust is back on. According to a June 1, 2023 Associated Press article at columbian.com, the 2015 suit was heard by "A three-member panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals [that] dismissed the case in 2020 after finding that [U.S. District Court Judge] Aiken lacked the power to order or design a climate recovery plan sought in the lawsuit. [par break] The plaintiffs then filed an amended complaint asking to change their lawsuit to seek a ruling that the nation’s fossil fuel-based energy system is unconstitutional."

In my June 26, 2016 interview at The San Diego Union-Tribune, I said, "climate change is such a serious issue, if you are a graphic artist or a musician or an accountant, whatever you are we need your help. For me, being a poet is my way of helping." Norman O. Brown's Love's Body, Chapter 1, "Liberty," notes, "For the reality of politics, we must go to the poets, not to the politicians." Some readers said they prefer to order my books from a local bookstore. In that case, Bridge at the End of the World can be ordered using ISBN: 978-1-4218-3540-2 (Distributed by Ingram).

1939 "Voyage of the Damned" and Climate Migration

The 1939 "Voyage of the Damned" is timely due to past, current, and future responses to climate migrants. Amy Tikkanen's March 28, 2019 article "MS St. Louis" at britannica.com noted, "May–June 1939 [ . . . ] Cuba, the United States, and Canada denied entry to its more than 900 Jewish passengers, most of whom had fled Nazi Germany. Ultimately, several European countries took the refugees, though 255 of the passengers are believed to have later died in the Holocaust."  The article adds, "In early May Cuban Pres. Federico Laredo Brú signed a decree that invalidated the passengers’ landing certificates. His decision was supported by many Cubans who feared that the immigrants would compete for jobs as the country continued to struggle through the Great Depression [ . . . . ] U.S. government also refused to admit the refugees, citing the country’s yearly immigration quota [ . . . . In 2018] Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau formally apologized for his country’s failure to grant asylum to the Jews on board the St. Louis."

As climate emergency morphs into climate catastrophe in many areas, it seems increasingly unlikely human values of justice, compassion, and empathy will survive where these are most needed.  A recent example comes from the European Council on Refugees and Exiles, "an alliance of 110 NGOs across 40 European countries." Their May 5, 2023 news article notes, "Mediterranean: Italy Delays, Malta Ignores, Tunisia and Libya Pull Back and Abuse – People on the Move Suffer." 

The April 2023 version of Climate Action Tracker shows no countries are "1.5°C PARIS AGREEMENT COMPATIBLE." As annual global carbon dioxide emissions rise, people would be wise to follow the example of Associate Professor Katrin Meissner, Director at UNSW Climate Change Research Centre. In the ABC News (Australia) video Climate scientists reveal their fears for the future she said, "It's going to be dramatic [ . . . ] I don't think there will be any safe places [ . . . . ] So my approach is to be as mobile, as flexible, as possible to be able to adapt to whatever is going to happen. My children are bilingual, and we are working on a third language. Both children have three passports, and they actually have the freedom to be able to study and work either in the European Union, or in Canada, or in Australia."

In a related matter, Pulitzer Prize-finalist environmental reporter Abrahm Lustgarten has an excellent interview in the May 24, 2021 video The Great Climate Migration Has Begun | Amanpour and Company. In the video Lustgarten says, "All of the predictors point to really significant large-scale movement of populations [ . . . . ] By the time someone was thinking of actually moving, [ . . . ] it was an act of sheer desperation and it stemmed from just absolute hunger and poverty [ . . . . ] One of the traits that we learned from the United Nations and others who study climate-driven migration is that it's not usually a choice, and it's not usually a preference. It's usually a decision of last resort. That people prefer to stay close. They're attached to their communities, and when they move it's because they absolutely have no other choice."

I sometimes wonder how things got this bad, this fast. One answer could be an IPCC wrong assumption. Specifically, Pilita Clark's May 4, 2023 Financial Times article, "13 lessons from a climate change diplomat with months left to live," notes Pete Betts, "one of the world's most experienced environmental negotiators," said, "When we made that [2015 Paris] agreement, we thought there would be lots of scrutiny by civil society and others of these climate pledges before COPS, so countries would be under pressure to set ambitious goals and change them if they were widely seen as insufficient. We were wrong." It may be the mistake that helps sink island nations, and causes many other climate disasters. As I, and others, emphasized, a different COP plan is needed.

Two Climate Solutions and U. S. Supreme Court Decision

I agree with those who say it's wrong to just document climate disasters without offering real solutions. I offered one March 31, 2019 in my post "Solution to Reducing Climate Change is Purple," but, as far as I know, it was never taken seriously. 

Dr. Ye Tao (RF Alumnus of Rowland Institute at Harvard) offered his MEER:ReflEction Project, which fits, according to him, small scale and large scale uses. Like in my post, his significant warnings came unfortuantely true. I mentioned him again in my February 19, 2022 post, "Dr Ye Tao talks with Clare Farrell | 23 November 2021 | Extinction Rebellion UK" along with this summary, "Dr. Ye Tao gives an excellent presentation weaving in social equity, and the need for nonprofit science-based solutions benefiting people in all countries such as mirrored roof tiles in India to reduce suffering during extreme heat events." Recent heat waves in India, China, Thailand and Laos show why Dr. Tao's plan is needed as soon as possible before more of his warnings materialize. 

Regarding my warnings, and warnings in my five books of climate poems, I would much rather be wrong -- Industrial Oz (Fomite, 2015), Hawk on Wire (Fomite, 2017), Carbonfish Blues (Fomite, 2018), Between River & Street (MoonPath Press, 2021), Bridge at the End of the World (Winner of a 2023 Blue Light Book Award).

My favorite recent climate resources are: "How melting Arctic ice could be fueling bigger wildfires in the Western U.S." in the April 19, 2023 npr.org site for animation, image, and text boxes making vital information timely and accessible; and, for a human-suffering focus, New York Times climate reporter Raymond Zhong's April 25, 2023 article "Here Are the Places Most at Risk From Record-Shattering Heat."

I wonder about the effects when an "ice-free" Arctic likely happens between 2025 and 2050? The August 25, 2016 "Guest post: How predictable is the first ice-free Arctic summer?" by Dr. Alexandra Jahn, Assistant Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Fellow at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado, noted "By 'ice-free', scientists usually mean a sea ice extent of less than one million square kilometres, rather than zero sea ice cover." She added, "Most models suggest it will happen sometime around the middle of the 21st century." Regardless, what kind of tipping points will happen, and how will humans cope? 

Even without the U. S. Supreme Court decision Bill McKibben posted today, "A seismic win went almost unnoticed amidst the Tuckerstrom -- High court lets cities and states sue Exxon et al," the fossil fuel party needs to be over. It has needed to be over for a long time. McKibben wrote, "Say you’re on a jury, and someone reads you a newly discovered memo from Shell dated 1989 and explaining that ‘climate-fuelled migration could swamp borders in the United States, Soviet Union, Europe, and Australia.’ 'Conflict would abound,' the document said. 'Civilisation could prove a fragile thing.' Perhaps you would vote for a large award."

Climate Bear and Rowboat

Extrapolations — Official Trailer | Apple TV+

In the above trailer Edward Norton's character Jonathan Chopin says "I think it helps to look at climate change like a bear. The whole planet's been wrestling with the bear for decades. So far, the bear's been kicking our ass."  This reminds me of the end of my September 11, 2019 post, "It is like a grizzly bear has trapped us in a cave. We can stay in the cave and starve, or fight him by trying geoengineering, and maybe some of us will live." Unfortunately, according to Bill McKibben's comments below, geoengineering may come sooner than many think.

Last week I was in a discussion about the climate emergency. I said conditions are changing fast according to the ancient laws of physics for which human ideas and beliefs are irrelevant. Specifically, I'm referring to sea surface temperatures, melting at the poles, etc., etc., etc. Jason Box said in a July 2016 post I wrote, out of the ten possible scenarios on climate change, nine result in loss of society as we know it. He said this across a table from me at PLAYA, and gave me permission to post it. In another post, I included a video of UN Secretary-General António Guterres saying, "We are on a fast track to climate disaster." As I wrote before, former Harvard Fellow Ye Tao noted, "two degrees is already passed [no matter what we do]" and "At three degrees C [ above year 1850 baseline] we're talking about planetary scale biological annihilation of any multicellular species [ . . . ]"

Given all these problems, the group wanted to know what is the one thing people can do? Absent an Alan Turing-style techno-solution, my answer was to focus on one's spiritual health. Of course, instead of the millions of lives Turing saved, the number would now be in the billions. However, this may not be possible in the time we have as Big Oil and their poltical puppets globally are stealing time for solutions from all human and nonhuman creatures. 

Regarding spiritual health, according to translator Coleman Barks, Rumi said, "Submit to a daily practice." In the film Rumi, poet of the heart, Barks says, "When [Rumi] died. members of every faith in Konya [Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist] came to his funeral honoring him as they felt a way of deepening into their own faith." Barks gave me permission in 2017 to include his translation of Rumi's "An Empty Garlic," and it is one of the most-read posts here. 

Since I mentioned the bear, another image is the climate rowboat. Imagine trying to row safely to shore above Niagara Falls (3 C) with one oar locked in one side. You can't because the boat spins in awkward circles as roar of falls gets louder. That's us.

My favorite recent climate resources are Mel Gurtov's "Climate Crisis Is Heading Towards Catastrophe" in the April 5, 2023 LA Progressive, for summary and clarity,  and two of Bill McKibben's recent Substack posts from The Crucial Years. They are "Truly 'Uncharted Territory'" from April 2, 2023, and "Just say no" from April 7, 2023. In the first post, McKibben notes,"As one scientist put it, the Antarctic current is 'on a trajectory that looks headed towards collapse,' and not on a scale of centuries, or even century. On a scale of decades and years [ . . . . ] Jim Hansen, the planet’s greatest climatologist, has suggested we could see temperatures pass, at least for a time, the 1.5 degree temperature mark [due to a strong El Nino] [ . . . . ] After that, we may well be in territory where only truly terrifying interventions like solar geoengineering will suffice."

McKibben's second post above shows why the climate rowboat spins in circles. He wrote, "Canada’s Justin Trudeau remains perhaps the most honest— [ . . . . ] Describing Alberta’s tarsands, he said 'no country would find 173 billion barrels of oil in the ground and just leave them there.'" 

McKibben's April 2, 2023, Rolling Stone article is also interesting. In "This Simple Math Problem Could Be the Key to Solving Our Climate Crisis" he wrote, "If we are to meet the climate targets set by scientists, we have to leave 90 percent of the fossil fuels we have discovered underground. And at current prices that means stranding about $100 trillion worth of assets in the soil. [ . . . . ] $2.8 Billion -- Last year, we were hit with a staggering number: $2.8 billion is how much profit the fossil-fuel industry has earned daily for the past 50 years." It seems these guys love money far more than their children and grandchildren, or yours. 

I'm grateful the literary journal Months to Years published my poem, "For Mrs. Savage, 1967," and I appreciate Rena Priest included my poem "Three Sockeye in Columbia River, Oregon" in the anthology I Sing the Salmon Home: Poems from Washington State.