Global Dimming Debate

November 23, 2021 Update: Dr. Ye Tao, RF Alumnus of Rowland Institute at Harvard, provided an update on the global dimming issue.

I'm grateful to Dave Borlace's Just Have a Think for reporting the "global dimming" climate issue may not be as serious for humans as many thought. Borlace's video contrasts with meteorologist Eric Holthaus February 8, 2018 Grist article citing this 2018 report in Geophysical Research Letters. 

Scope, intensity, timescale, and solutions regarding "global dimming" are the four main issues. In my November 24, 2019 post "Climate Equity Graph from Meinshausen et al. 2009, and Aerosol Killing / Cooling Double Bind" I wrote about Holthaus Grist article, The McPherson Paradox, and James Hansen in 2012 speaking about the aerosol problem as "Doubling Down on the Faustian Bargain" at 35:48 on this Climate One video. In my post I noted "I am uncertain about the magnitude of this problem." Even after Borlace's interesting video, I still feel this way. It seems more data and research are needed, and stakes are high enough to justify both. 

Borlace's description of "regional impacts" contrasts with Climate Scientist's David Travis' global analysis in this BBC video which originally aired in 2005 (a transcript is here). The BBC video provides a history of "global dimming" including Gerald Stanhill's research in Israel, Beate Liepert's research in Germany,  Graham Farquhar and Michael Roderick's research in Australia, Veerabhadran Ramanathan's research in The Maldives, Peter Cox's global research from the United Kingdom, and Leon Rotstayn's research about the Sahel drought whose model, according to narrator Jack Fortune, showed "what came out of our exhaust pipes and power stations [in Europe and North America may have] contributed to the deaths of a million people in Africa, and afflicted 50 million more." Rotstayn explained "The Sahel's lifeblood has always been a seasonal monsoon. For most of the year it is completely dry. But every summer, the heat of the sun warms the oceans north of the equator. This draws the rain belt that forms over the equator northwards, bringing rain to the Sahel. But for twenty years in the 1970s and 80s the tropical rain belt consistently failed to shift northwards [due to "global dimming" "pollution from Europe and North America" blocking the sun] - and the African monsoon failed."

Ramanathan explained in the BBC video "The Sahel is just one example of the monsoon system. Let me take you to anther part of the world, Asia, where the same monsoon brings rainfall to 3.6 billion people, roughly half the world's population. My main concern is this air pollution and the global dimming will also have a detrimental impact on this Asian monsoon. We are not talking about few millions of people. We are talking about few billions of people. There is no choice here. We have to cut down air pollution, if not eliminate it altogether."

In my March 3, 2018 post "Is a human life worth $450 to you?" I wrote "The highlight was when, as noted elsewhere, 'Dr. Ramanathan said it would take $450 per person per year in the top one billion people to change from our carbon economy to renewables' saving over 3 billion people that may otherwise die from exposure to 130 degree plus heat 35 years from now if humans fail to convert energy sources from coal and fossil fuels to 'solar, wind, hydro, and possibly nuclear. [ . . . . ] We have 10 to 15 years to solve the problem.'"

"The trees will carry what we don't say." -- Robert Bly

Here in the US there is a huge amount of misinformation about coronavirus (COVID-19) at all levels. In the end, reality is what matters whether anyone says it, or not, writes it, or not, sees it, or not. Robert Bly said "The trees will carry what we don't say."

I recall him discussing Alden Nowlan’s poetry: “First of all, he breaks through denial. You know denial is now used as a guide for foreign policy in the United States [. . . .] But especially in poetry there is a lot of denial [. . .] You can say that you can practice denial by saying that radiation won’t hurt you. That is the NSB [National Science Board] way [. . .] Then you can say that our bombs resemble high-level surgeons. That’s Bush’s way. Or you can practice denial simply by not mentioning death, cancer, or poverty at all. So we could call Nowlan a teacher of grief [. . . .] This moment of suffering and confusion is the real place where we touch our reason for being born.”

Four Quick Thoughts About Coronavirus (COVID-19)

1) The media focus now is on how "US, UK coronavirus strategies shifted following UK epidemiologists' ominous report" noting, according to CNN.com's Nick Paton Walsh,  "attempts to slow, or mitigate -- rather than actively halt, or suppress -- the novel coronavirus could overwhelm the number of intensive care hospital beds and lead to about 250,000 deaths in the UK and more than a million in the United States during the course of the current pandemic." In a contrast of numbers between coronavirus threat and regular flu, Claire Gillespie wrote Feb. 11 at health.com "Overall, the CDC estimates that [between] 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually [in the US] since 2010 can be blamed on the flu."

2) Scientists like peer-reviewed published studies for credibility, and there hasn't been time for that with the speed and scope of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Best available information is taking priority for decision-makers reviewing the above study, and another that found "viable [HCoV-19] virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization" according to some of the leading groups and universities including National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health; Princeton University; University of California, Los Angeles; Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases; and  Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health.

3) The Guardian's Michael Safi, Philip Oltermann and Patrick Wintour reported March 15, "Those dying in the Iranian outbreak are significantly younger than elsewhere, with 15% of them younger than 40, according to health ministry statistics." This is important because of how it contrasts with widely-reported news the main risks are for people in their 80s, 70s, and 60s, people with weak immune systems, or a small percent with unlucky DNA. Since viruses mutate, conditions may change.  Historians and scientists note the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed most of its estimated 65 million the second time it went around the Earth, and according to the above link "spread like wildfire affecting a third or a quarter of the population of the world."

4) Laurie Garrett, a former Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations, showed the contrast between how the US is fighting the COVID-19 pandemic with a local or state-by-state approach versus many other countries' centralized coordinated efforts. She predicted yesterday "slowly, over the next seven to 10 days, airports will close. Train stations will close." She said "Everybody who has ever been involved in modeling and understanding what was going to happen to America, in a serious epidemic, saw this [ lack of a 'uniform policy across the country'] as a special weakness in the American capacity to respond. [ . . . . ] Things broke down between the states. States closed borders against other states. [ . . . .] [We saw] how urgent it is that you act swiftly in the early stages of your epidemic, and dangerous it is to delay even a day, much less weeks in your response. [ . . . . ] I think we're looking at a very tough three, maybe five, months here in America."

Coronavirus News: Good, Bad, and Ugly -- Updated March 7-9, 2020

March 7-9, 2020 Update:  Italy extended its COVID-19 quarantine to the entire country.  William Feuer at cnbc.com wrote "People throughout the country of 60 million should not travel other than for work and emergencies, Conte said. He added that all public gatherings will be banned and sporting events suspended. The decision was made to protect the most vulnerable people in the country, he said, and the measures will take effect Tuesday and last until April 3."

This follows yesterday's BBC.COM report "Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people," and shows how fast conditions may change. BBC.COM later noted "Anyone who breaks the quarantine rules could be jailed for three months." 

Anya Kamenetz at npr.org reported "More Than 20 Colleges Cancel In-Person Classes In Response To Coronavirus." She wrote "The colleges enroll a total of more than 200,000 students, and include Columbia University, Princeton University, Rice University, Stanford University, Hofstra University and the University of Southern California, plus the University of Washington and a clutch of community colleges in Washington state."

Italy has a population of 60,489,383 according to worldometers.info and its previous quarantine of 16 million covered 26.45% of its population. The USA has 331,002,651, and 26.45% of that would be 87,550,201, or everyone from the Rockies to the Pacific Ocean, plus we would still need to quarantine an extra 10.48 million. 

At Olympic Climate Action blog Hot Off the Wire I found this letter of suggestions from former UCSD Professor of Pathology and MD James Robb, "one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s)."  It was confirmed by snopes.com to be a real letter. 

March 9, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, Chief Medical Correspondent at CNN.com, wrote "The largest case studies out of China indicate that around 80% of those infected with the coronavirus had symptoms of a bad cold and are expected to recover. Another 14% became severely ill, and 5% percent became critically ill. People in their 70s and 80s were most likely to become severely or critically ill and pre-existing conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, lung disease and hypertension also increased the risk." In the article Dr. Gupta explained why CNN.com is using the term "pandemic."

 At npr.org Avie Schneider's article "Dow Dives More Than 2,000 Points; Steep Market Slide Triggered Trading Halt" explained "Stock indexes tumbled so fast Monday that trading on the New York Stock Exchange was halted temporarily for the first time since October 1997. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2,013 points as fears grew over the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic . [ . . . . par break] It was the worst day for the market since 2008, during the financial crisis."

When I began this post, I wrote about "Good, Bad, and Ugly" COVID-19 news below.

Good:
Overall mortality rate so far may be much lower than 3.4 % reported by Los Angeles Times. Tess Riski and Nigel Jaquiss at wweek.com wrote "considering that many may have been infected who didn't know it or who experienced mild symptoms, experts are starting to think that rate could be much lower. [ . . . . ] 'The vast majority of people infected with COVID-19 will have a mild disease,' said Dr. Dean Sidelinger of the Oregon Health Authority."

Bad:
The site axios.com cited Bill Gates noting "it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems" and "The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill."

Aimee Green at The Oregonian/OregonLive cited "A massive study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention [that] surveyed nearly 45,000 cases in the country as of Feb. 11. [ . . . . ] 15% of people 80 years and older who were infected ultimately died. The death rate was 8% for people in their 70s, 3.6% in their 60s, 1.3% in their 50s and 0.4% or lower for people 49 and younger. [ . . . . ] It found that the mortality rate was zero for children in their first decade of life, and 0.1% for people 19 and younger."

Ugly:
Gates, in the above axios.com article notes this is "a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen" even though he adds it's too early to say. Gates cautioned "we should assume it will be [bad] until we know otherwise." Gates explains here what a "once-in-a-century pathogen" could do.

Fiona Harvey at The Guardian reported March 2, 2020, "Vital Cop26 climate talks could be derailed by coronavirus." She wrote "China would be distracted from the talks, predicted Paul Bledsoe, a former climate adviser in Bill Clinton’s White House and a strategic adviser to the Progressive Policy Institute in the US." Bledsoe said "Should coronavirus become a full-scale pandemic, holding anything like a traditional Cop might quickly become impossible.”