"2020 spring salmon forecast mirrors previous year’s [low returns]" -- The Columbian

Suz on a river near our house about three years ago.

Low water steelhead fishing on Oregon coast.

Suz and I got in a big fight because her veggie casserole smelled up my sandshrimps, and fish wouldn't bite. Before that, I was scolded for being too fat, and scolded for not eating enough. I guess I'm still learning about married life.

The coho run was a bust in area rivers and fall chinook season closed early so hopefully winter steelhead fishing will be better. Oddly, coho jack counts last year were good (year-early smaller fish) but, Terry Otto of The Columbian reported Dec. 18, 2019, "Staff from [Washington and Oregon] expressed concern about the fact that the big jack return of 2018, which should have been a sign of a very strong return in 2019, [. . .] did not pan out. [par break] The fact that there were so many jacks that did not survive to spawn means something happened to adult coho in the ocean. Managers can only speculate about the reason. [. . . .] 'Certainly, the ocean has turned a little bit (poor) again in 2019.' said Tucker Jones, the ODFW manager of ocean salmon and Columbia River. 'Climate change is going to make everything more variable and dynamic, so for sure it’s a real possibility.'"  In 2016 The Columbian posted my letter about the climate/salmon issue noting "[In 2015] the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife trucked salmon up low rivers to spawn, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife trucked salmon out of Central Oregon due to warm waters, and California trucked smolts to the ocean."

I will speculate 2019 low runs were due to return of the "blob" impacting ocean feeding, increasing weakened fish' vulnerability to marine predators, and killing more fish from river disease. Specifically, I wrote in a previous post September 1, 2019 about return of the Pacific fish-killing "blob." Scott Sistek's linked katu.com news article reported "Research scientists with NOAA Fisheries note that a new expanse of unusually warm water has quickly grown in much the same way [as in 2014-15], in the same area, to almost the same size -- again [in 2019] stretching from Alaska to California."

Similarly, the Statesman Journal reported "To help the remaining [fall] Chinook spawn, officials have closed the entire North [Oregon] Coast to all salmon angling effective Dec. 13 to 31. [. . . .] [ODFW Biologist Robert] Bradley blamed abnormally dry conditions in Oregon for the spread of the [cryptobia] parasite, which has caused fish deaths in the past but never on this scale."  

In my December 8, 2013 post Dr. David Welch, a world expert on salmon migratory patterns, whom sent maps on coho, chinook, sockeye, and steelhead Pacific Ocean migrations, claimed "global warming" was one of the biggest threats to long-term survival of the Pacific Northwest's iconic fish. This fit what Bob Lackey, Professor of Fisheries at Oregon State University, emailed me: "In a 100 years wild salmon runs south of Canada will be reduced to remnant runs."

A similar nightmare is unfolding in Tasmania. 

One of my Native friends of many years told me in June some tribal elders said this may be the last human generation on Earth so it's time for gratitude for many gifts received, and time to help young people as we can.

Planck Epoch to Precambrian to Anthropocene to Titanicene, "What a long strange trip it's been." -- Grateful Dead

When the "unsinkable" Titanic went down, some rich people died. History.com noted "Of the 2,240 passengers and crew on board, more than 1,500 lost their lives in the disaster." Among the drowned was "the wealthiest passenger [ . . .] John Jacob Astor IV, heir to the Astor family fortune." Businessinsider.com reported wealthy victims included John Thayer, "railroad executive," Isidor Straus, "co-owner of Macy's— and his wife Ida," Benjamin Guggenheim, "mining magnate," George Dennick Wick, "steel magnate," and Charles Melville Hays, "railroad executive." I'm guessing it will be the same with climate crisis as insulated countries become more vulnerable with each passing year. 

Titanic has become a cliche for climate change. In an earlier post, I wrote "Barry McGuire's protest song "Eve of Destruction" written by P. F. Sloan in 1964 is a good COP25 theme song." In tribute to failed COP25, I now offer the term "Titanicene."  I chose this partly because of Dave Borlace's report "A team of climate scientists has released a new study in the journal Nature showing that the Greenland ice sheet is now melting seven times faster than it was back in 1992. [. . . and] a similar study back in June that revealed Antarctica is losing 200 billion tonnes of ice a year representing a threefold rate of loss compared to 2012." 

Sometimes asking politicians to see truth is like Kabir wrote: "people won't wake up -- Not until they feel death's club inside their skulls." In a related matter, my post PLAYA Climate Change Discussion July 7, 2016 received over 600 views, maybe because of Jason Box's comment "out of the ten possible scenarios on climate change, nine result in loss of society as we know it."  Since the climate crisis is much worse now, I'm guessing our odds are less. I recall David Suzuki said in his Dec. 16, 2018 video Why it’s time to think about human extinction "We've got a 5% chance of keeping temperature below 2 degrees [Celsius global average above year 1850 preindustrial]" [32:27 on timeline] but "We don't know enough to say it's too late [35:14 on timeline] [. . . .] Now, the hope I cling to [. . . is] based on reality. [. . . .] The biggest run of sockeye [salmon] in the world is in the Fraser River here in British Columbia, and we like to get 20 to 30 million sockeye coming back in their run. In 2009 we got just over one million sockeye [. . .] and I vividly remember turning to my wife and I said 'That's it. [. . . .] The sockeye are gone.' One year later we got the biggest run of sockeye in a hundred years [36:04 on timeline] [. . . .] Nature shocked us, and I believe that nature has many many more surprises, some of them not so great, but I think she will be far more generous than we deserve. We've got to pull back. We've got to protect every bit of nature we've got left, and work like hell to cut our ecological footprint. [ . . . .] But it's a very narrow window. [. . . .] I say that we need new technology but it's got to be technology done with great humility and care, and I believe the guiding principle of technology has got to be what's called biomimicry" [38:30 on timeline].

Suzuki asked "Who do we look to if our own politicians we elect to high office don't even care about our children? What the hell? What kind of a species are we? You're damn right it's doom and gloom" [28:27 on timeline].

"'The Most Extreme Fires We’ve Ever Seen': Record Climate-Fueled Wildfires Engulf Australia in Smoke" Democracy NOW! at COP25

Jan. 14, 2020 Update: "An Australia in flames tries to cope with an ‘animal apocalypse.’ Could California be next?" is a front page Los Angeles Times story by Joseph Serna and Susanne Rust with a two-minute video on attempts to save koalas as "50 to 80% of [their] habitat" was destroyed by recent fires.The article notes "Scientists estimate that, so far in Australia, fires have killed from hundreds of millions to more than 1 billion native animals."

January 3, 2020 BBC News Update on Australia's Fires

In the above Democracy NOW! video Bill Hare, Australian environmental scientist and director of Climate Analytics, coordinator of Climate Action Tracker, said “I’ve seen more tears at this COP [2019 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Madrid, Spain] than I’ve ever seen in the previous 24 COPS. This is the crying COP. We’re having people coming from small island states whose islands are going under absolutely devastated, almost panicking about the state of the threat they face. [. . . .] The Great Barrier Reef [. . .] on the west coast [. . .] and north [is] going under from coral bleaching. We’re seeing enormous problems happening with biodiversity. We have 400 kilometers of dead mangroves of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The scientists in my community are saying we’re beginning to see ecosystem collapse.”

In a previous post I wrote "U. S. winter is Australia's summer so it's vital to watch what is happening in Australia 'with summer yet to start' according to Nine News Australia to preview the trend of possible U. S. climate impacts June through September 2020. The 40.9 C Melbourne's 'hottest November day on record' equals 105.6 F."

The slowness of meaningful COP response is like being at a party inside a house on fire where so-called leaders are fighting over the last bag of chips.  I recall a Shell CEO told Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), "The climate problem is real but it is completely intractable. You can not solve it. So, let's get rich quick before the world ends, huh?'" In addition, see my August 29, 2018 post Schellnhuber: "Rising Seas Could Affect 1.4 Billion People by 2060."

Chilean Economist Manfred Max-Neef spoke in 2013 about what a sane global economy would look like. The start of his 5 min. video notes "five postulate[s] and one fundamental value principle." He said "The value principle I propose is that no economic interest whatsoever, under any circumstances, can be above the reverence for life. And I say life meaning much more than just human beings -- life in all its manifestations of which we are one example."

Climate Change and Why We Should Panic voiced by Keira Knightley | Extinction Rebellion

Used with permission of Extinction Rebellion.

Climate Crisis Underreported in KPBS Roundtable Discussion in San Diego

As I wrote on the back of Hawk on Wire, "the INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) agreed to in Paris in 2016 of 3.5° C (6.3° F) over pre-industrial levels are insanely irresponsible to present and future generations of all species." 

The October 2017 170 California fires and November 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, CA, widely reported as the "deadliest" in California history, may help explain the Dec. 6, 2019 Los Angels Times report by David Lauter, "Hit by fires and droughts, California [Democratic primary] voters call climate change their top priority."  The report notes "Overall, 47% chose climate change, followed by 32% picking healthcare reform, 14% immigration and 3% criminal justice."

For anyone still on the fence about climate change being human caused, consider James Powell's Nov. 20, 2019 article "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming" in Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. Powell's abstract notes "The consensus among research scientists on anthropogenic global warming has grown to 100%, based on a review of 11,602 peer-reviewed articles on 'climate change' and 'global warming' published in the first 7 months of 2019." His  biography notes he "has a PhD from MIT in Geochemistry and is the former college president, museum director, and 12-year member of the US National Science Board appointed first by President Reagan and then by the President G. H. W. Bush."  

Subject: Dec. 6 KPBS Round Table Climate Change Discussion

Editors:

Today in the KPBS Round Table discussion on climate change, I was disappointed how the danger of the climate crisis, as noted by top scientists, was underreported.

Your speakers probably know one of the most credible scientists on Earth regarding this topic is James Hansen. Hansen, former Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, warned the U. S. Congress about the climate crisis threat in 1988. 

This is what he said in his December 4, 2019, COP25 press conference, which I also linked and reported in the fifth paragraph of my recent blog post "Look, Look, Look," "450 [ppm of  CO2] is a disaster if you leave it in the air for long because we would eventually lose all coastal cities. The safe level is something less than 350 ppm but we are already at 410 ppm." I added "That should be on the front page of each newspaper on Earth."

Another credible scientific source is the IPCC. On my November 24, 2019 post "Climate Equity Graph from Meinshausen et al. 2009, and Aerosol Killing / Cooling Double Bind" I wrote the recent IPCC report noted "Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C (high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) at 2°C (very high confidence)." Here is why the IPCC is a credible source. There is no doubt among the mainstream scientific community that we will blast through 2°C because of the CO2 already in the system. In that same post I wrote "Brian Kahn on December 3rd, 2014, at climatecentral.org noted 'CO2 Takes Just 10 Years to Reach Planet’s Peak Heat' so we have some worse effects locked in."

The main [problem] with underreporting the danger of the climate crisis is that people will not plan for it.  As I asked at the end of my September 1, 2019, post  "Welcome to the Future -- Thoughts and Prayers for Those in Dorian's Path," "My two questions are: 1) What would city planning, agriculture, wilderness preservation, transportation, and colleges look like if our leaders told us this truth? and  2) What potential does humanity have if we stop playing this game of musical chairs with our and nonhuman survival?"

Please let me know if you have questions. Be advised I may post your response on my blog that has readers in 99 countries. 

Best regards,

Scott T. Starbuck

Trees, Fish, and Dreams Climateblog

"Look, Look, Look"

Some thought my last post was a bit dramatic, but it was, unfortunately, factual.
In other words, look, look, look at news the past two days:

"Huge waves and disease turn Marshall Islands into ‘a war zone,’ health official says"
by Susanne Rust in Los Angeles Times. "This week, the picture grew even bleaker as
climate change, disease and political unease collided and officials put out an international
plea for help." See The GroundTruth Project and FRONTLINE's great interactive video "The Last Generation" that "places you in the shoes of [three Marshall Islands] children as they grapple with the possibility of seeing their homeland disappear." The project won "an Emmy Award, an Online Journalism Award, World Press Photo’s Inaugural Interactive of The Year Award, a Scripps Howard Award, and a Webby Award."

"Climate crisis is 'challenge of civilisation', says pope" by Fiona Harvey in The Guardian.
Kat Kramer, "the global climate lead at Christian Aid" mentioned in the article,
noted "The studies published this week showing temperatures and emissions hitting new highs
suggests our leaders are failing us. It’s no wonder that Pope Francis has felt the need to step
in once again to remind politicians they need to do a much better job."

"Florida Keys Deliver a Hard Message: As Seas Rise, Some Places Can’t Be Saved" by
Christopher Flavelle and Patricia Mazzei in The New York Times. "To protect against expected
flooding levels in 2060, the cost would jump to $181 million [ par break] And all that to protect
about two dozen homes. [. . . .] How do you tell somebody, ‘We’re not going to build the road
to get to your home’? And what do we do?' Mr. Gastesi asked. 'Do we buy them out? And how
do we buy them out — is it voluntary? Is it eminent domain? How do we do that?'” Other serious issues, as my students and I wrote before, include what to do about "survivors and victims of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, especially those from islands of Barbuda and Puerto Rico, as well as Californians affected by fires, and millions globally enduring floods in Bangladesh [widely reported as 1/3 underwater in 2017], Peru, Nepal, India, China, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Canada, Iran, Norway, England, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, and other places." That was before the recent disaster in The Bahamas.

The climate crisis is so obvious, one has to work hard not to notice.  Professor James Hansen said in his COP25 Press Conference "450 [ppm of  CO₂] is a disaster if you leave it in the air for long because we would eventually lose all coastal cities. The safe level is something less than 350 ppm but we are already at 410 ppm." That should be on the front page of each newspaper on Earth.

In another COP25 video Paul Beckwith used the metaphor of humans as the stubborn knight in Monty Python's The Holy Grail which I is something I wrote about in my post "The Black Knight and Climate Change" September 5, 2017. with the video linked.  The difference was I faulted "world leaders" because as Isaac Asimov said, "Well, it’s perhaps not important that every human being thinks so. How about the leaders thinking so? How about the opinion-makers thinking so? Ordinary people might follow them. If we didn’t have leaders who are thinking in exactly the opposite way; if we didn’t have people who are shouting hatred and suspicion of foreigners; if we didn’t have people who are shouting that it’s more important to be unfriendly than to be friendly; if we didn’t have people shouting somehow that people inside the country who don’t look exactly the way the rest of us look, that something’s wrong with them."

Open Letter to World Leaders on "Eve of Destruction" at COP25 Dec. 2 – Dec. 13, 2019, Madrid, Spain

I may be a fisherman, and you may be the most powerful puppets on Earth, but your unbalanced goal to pursue competitive advantage over sustainable cooperation will, according to your scientists in your countries, kill most everyone and everything you value unless you rise to a higher level of consciousness by telling Big Oil their time is over. Will Pinocchio become a real boy?

Barry McGuire's protest song "Eve of Destruction" written by P. F. Sloan in 1964 is a good COP25 theme song.

Is the boat on fire or is Suz reeling in a halibut?

Sometimes I take a break from climate work to fish. On March 31, 2019, I wrote "The problem is greenhouse gases are invisible, and solution is to require by international law fossil fuel emissions in all countries be immediately colored purple the same way rotten egg scent is added to natural gas to alert homeowners to danger of leaks.  This way people can see what humans are doing in local real time to build social, political, economic, and legal will necessary to reduce emissions and preserve a livable planet.  The truth would no longer be silenced in some areas, with building catastrophic events in others, because it would be in everyone's face every second of every day [. . . .] To increase albedo, make it a nearly white purple.  [. . . .] My idea, while expensive, is not insane. What is insane is doing nothing significant to reduce emissions."

No world governments, as far as I know, took my advice.

"Climate Scientist [Oxford Doctor Adam Levy] reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments"

Used with permission of ClimateAdam also known as a doctor in atmospheric physics (University of Oxford) focused on communicating complex scientific ideas with engaging multimedia stories on his award-winning YouTube channel. I found this at skepticalscience.com. Listen to Dr. Piers Sellers, former NASA astronaut and Director of the Earth Science Division at NASA/GSFC, in the film Before the Flood complement Dr. Levy's points.

Climate Equity Graph from Meinshausen et al. 2009, and Aerosol Killing / Cooling Double Bind

Used with permission of POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH 

and used by Paul Beckwith. 

Update: The Guardian, at Rockström's request, changed the quote below for a 4 C world to "It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or maybe even half of that."

As a reminder, here is why the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is not a radical group. I've written on this blog about its "Global Warming of 1.5 C Report." I provided a video of implications and included a statement by Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, noting at 4 C above preindustrial 1850 baseline, "It’s difficult to see how [Earth] could accommodate a billion people or even half of that." I have also written the IPCC report noted "Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C (high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) at 2°C (very high confidence)." I have seen pushback claiming humanity is not in a climate crisis, but tell that to the estimated 500 million to 1 billion people depending on those coral reefs for food and/or jobs that will clearly be lost unless some miracle science, not yet invented, saves them. 

In the graph above, vertical above the "My kids" line, the nightmare scenario of 4 C is within their kids' lifetimes, with increasing climate chaos for those alive now in the absence of meaningful carbon reductions. In addition, as I wrote, Brian Kahn on December 3rd, 2014, at climatecentral.org noted "CO2 Takes Just 10 Years to Reach Planet’s Peak Heat" so we have some worse effects locked in. 

However, there is also the increasingly-reported problem of the role aerosols from human carbon emissions play in cooling Earth so we need a solution for that as well. Eric Holthaus reported February 8, 2018 in Grist, "According to a new study, we might be locked in this deadly embrace. Research by an international team of scientists recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters says that the cooling effect of aerosols is so large that it has masked as much as half of the warming effect from greenhouse gases. So aerosols can’t be wiped out. Take them away and temperatures would soar overnight." He continues "If we magically transformed the global economy overnight, and air pollution fell to near zero, we’d get an immediate rise in global temperatures of between 0.5 and 1.1 degrees Celsius, according to the new study. (For reference: The climate has warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century.) The warming would be concentrated over the major cities of the northern hemisphere, close to where most aerosols are emitted. In the hardest hit parts of highly-urbanized East Asia, for example, the complete removal of aerosols would likely have a bigger effect than all other sources of climate change combined. Temperatures in the Arctic could jump as much as 4 degrees Celsius — a catastrophe that would shove the region further toward a permanently ice-free state." As a reminder, President Niinistö of Finland said in Joint Press Conference with President Trump, August 28, 2017, "If we lose the Arctic, we lose the globe." 

Years before the 2018 Grist article was republished in Rolling Stone, I heard about the aerosol problem, currently noted as The McPherson Paradox, but I also saw how McPherson was challenged by climate scientist Michael E. Mann, The Guardian, and others.  Unfortunately, McPherson's ideas about "the aerosol masking effect" or "global dimming" are not easily dismissed, and I am uncertain about the magnitude of this problem. I wrote a post in 2018 "Climate Scientists Expressing Nightmare/Anger/Fear/Gratitude/Other Feelings" with a video of Australian climate scientists' fears of having children. Bill McKibben's most recent book Falter asks in its subtitle "Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?"

In short, this aerosol killing / cooling situation may have us in a double bind. The double bind idea is explained by writer / activist Derrick Jensen at about 5 minutes and 20 seconds into his Forget Shorter Showers video made by Jore. The problem may be that reducing carbon emissions, if humans can do this, is only half the solution with no widely-published plans for resulting removal of aerosol cooling effect. If you have a scientifically-viable plan, please let me know at rivermuses@gmail.com, and maybe I will add it to this post. 

James Hansen in 2012 spoke about the aerosol problem as "Doubling Down on the Faustian Bargain" at 35:48 on this Climate One video. 

U. S. winter is Australia's summer so it's vital to watch what is happening in Australia "with summer yet to start" according to Nine News Australia to preview the trend of possible U. S. climate impacts June through September 2020. The 40.9 C Melbourne's "hottest November day on record" equals 105.6 F.

The [Torture] Report

I saw the great film The [Torture] Report at Digital Gym in San Diego, and hope a similar one is in the pipeline about climate crisis and fossil fuel companies, another national disgrace. Showtimes are here. Former San Diego Mesa College student Annette Bening plays California U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, effectively showing what happens when incompetent unqualified leaders (not her) are elected or appointed at any level of responsibility.  "Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!" wrote Sir Walter Scott in 1808.  Watch one diligent honest investigator fight for human decency and justice.  Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger spoke about the situation in this quote in a previous blog post regarding his anger at fossil fuel companies lying for 60 years.

In The [Torture] Report there is a reckoning for some, as there may soon be at Exxon reported by the Los Angeles Times yesterday. This guardian.com video of "Martin Hoffert, a scientist consultant for Exxon Research and Engineering in the 1980s" makes it clear for the sake of climate justice, Exxon must compensate developing nations. Bill Mckibben recently published an article about this at yesmagazine.org. He wrote "Indeed, the high-end estimate for economic damage from the global warming we’re on track to cause is $551 trillion, which is more money than exists on planet Earth. Even that figure is notional: How do you compensate the generations of people yet unborn who will inherit a badly degraded world? Even if Exxon et al were to disgorge every dirty penny they’d ever made, it wouldn’t pay for relocating Miami, much less Mumbai [ . . . . ] But at this point, even the best-case scenarios are relentlessly grim; lots of damage has been done, and far more is in the offing. We’re going to have to remake much of the world to have a chance at survival. And if we’re going to try, then that repair job shouldn’t repeat the imbalances of power and wealth that mark our current planet. Justice demands a real effort to make the last, first this time around."

In other business, I'm grateful feedspot.com added this blog to the top 40 list of "Top 60 Global Warming Blogs & Websites To Follow in 2019" joining Skeptical Science in Australia, Google News -Global Warming, The New York Times - Climate and Environment, The Guardian - Climate change in England, NASA Climate Change, Union of Concerned Scientists - Global Warming, and others. As a former editor for SanDiego350 who served on their coordinating committee for the Road Through Paris action, I also follow Bill McKibben's Twitter Site. A good list of updated climate links is at Olympic Climate Action's Hot Off the Wire.

Climate Dominoes in California and East Australia

Used with permission of Extinction Rebellion.

Julian Cribb wrote an excellent update November 29, 2019 at The Guardian on global bushfires.

Here is a November 14, 2019, update on former Australian fire chiefs' request, and a November 13, 2019, update on koala bears and other wildlife losing habitat.

Related to the Mullins quotes below, the above Extinction Rebellion video notes "It's obviously the case that some tasks are too big for one person [ . . . ] This is the last chance we have to solve this without serious serious consequences [ . . . ] All areas of life, certainly that includes our education culture, need to start focusing on this subject [ . . . . ] Coastal communities all over the world are threatened."

California fires the past three years and fires today in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia show results of increased climate vulnerability according to climate scientists. The link above notes these parts of east Australia are having "the worst bushfire conditions in four decades." In this ABC News (Australia) video former New South Wales Fire and Rescue Commissioner Greg Mullins, meeting with California firefighters, says his warnings to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison were ignored. It was reported on November 6, 2019, Mullins said "We're coming into what I think is the [ . . . ] the most dangerous build up to a fire season I've seen since 1994 when New South Wales was devastated and there's not even platitudes [from politicians]. There's just closed doors and closed minds [ . . . ] That's atrocious that our national government doesn't recognize that there's a disaster heading their way so [ . . . ] again, please listen Prime Minister." Unfortunately, the Australian government's response was too late as this series of fires, which began the morning of November 8, now includes more than 60 fires, and the overall situation may get much worse, according to several news sources.

Regarding the global situation and specifically California, Mullins said "The most fire prone parts of the planet are burning more and more. Here in California 18,000 homes [or structures] last year. 9,000 the year before. Previously, 3,000 was the biggest they'd think of. They're just shaking their heads saying 'What the hell is around the corner?'"

Scott Roars, another speaker in the video said "When I started in this business with the forestry [ . . . ] our [fire] seasons, especially in this [California] region, would maybe run four good months [ . . . ] Now, we start in April and we go almost to Christmas."

In addition to the human cost of Prime Minister Scott Morrison ignoring Mullins' warnings, CNN reported "Hundreds of koalas [are] feared dead." The article has a great photo of a fire-injured koala.

Guardian News posted a video "A volunteer firefighter Dan Boswood has captured just how difficult the fire conditions have been in mid-north Queensland."

All these ignored warnings in Australia and the United States, and noted "catastrophic" results, are grounds for Extinction Rebellion's third demand: "Government must create and be led by the decisions of a Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice [not bound and gagged by fossil fuel companies]." I recall Antigone said about King Creon in that Greek tragedy "There is no gag like terror, is there, gentlemen?" and in his Day of Affirmation Address against injustice of apartheid in 1966, Robert F. Kennedy said, "Moral courage is a rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is the one essential, vital quality of those who seek to change a world which yields most painfully to change. [ . . . . ]  I believe that in this generation those with the courage to enter the conflict will find themselves with companions in every corner of the world." This is a good reminder of the work Extinction Rebellion has been, and is, doing.

In a bbc.com article "Is climate change to blame for Australia's bushfires?" University of Sydney Professor Glenda Wardle said "It's not every weather event that is the direct result of climate change. But when you see trends... it becomes undeniably linked to global climate change."

"Senators announce bipartisan climate caucus: 'We look a bit like Neanderthals'" -- CBS NEWS

See the CBS News video Senators announce bipartisan climate caucus: "We look a bit like Neanderthals."  Talk of going after "low hanging fruit" reminds me of Christine Lagarde's statement about the 2008 financial crisis in the film Inside Job: "And l clearly remember telling Hank: 'We are watching this tsunami coming, and you're just proposing that we ask which swimming costume we're going to put on."' At the time, she was France's Finance Minister, and would later serve as President of the European Central Bank and Chairwoman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund.  This climate crisis is much much worse because natural systems that support many economies are in rapid decline.

Greta Thunberg recently tweeted "Again and again, the same message. Listen to the scientists, listen to the scientists. Listen to the scientists!"

What are they saying?  Matthew Green reported at REUTERS October 12, 2019 "Almost 400 scientists have endorsed a civil disobedience campaign aimed at forcing governments to take rapid action to tackle climate change, warning that failure could inflict 'incalculable human suffering.' [ . . . . ] 'The urgency of the crisis is now so great that many scientists feel, as humans, that we now have a moral duty to take radical action' [said Emily Grossman,] a science broadcaster with a PhD in molecular biology,'"

The CBS News video says "In our EYE ON EARTH series a bipartisan group of senators is announcing new action on climate change [ . . . ] Some prominent republicans are joining democrats to address the crisis." Something is better than nothing, but the speed of effort is too slow for reality outside Washington, D. C.

“Violence is a failure of the imagination.” -- William Stafford

"Radiohead - Idioteque" used with permission of Extinction Rebellion.

It's a hard but important time for creative artists, scientists, young people, and middle aged or elders of conscience. Washington Governor Jay Inslee said in his recent Rolling Stone interview with Jeff Goodell "The more I think about this, the more I understand this [climate] challenge as a lack of imagination, in two ways. One, some people can’t imagine a world that is as degraded as science tells us it’s going to be. They have trouble imagining a world without coral reefs, or a way to grow grapes in California; they can’t imagine that. But more importantly, they can’t imagine a world where we are driving electric cars, where we are powering the grid with a combination of renewable energy and have much more energy-efficient homes. [par break] We have done this before, with the mobilization for World War II. We have reorganized our economy [ . . . . ]"

Similarly, see Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army. The report noted "Rising seas will displace tens (if not hundreds) of millions of people, creating massive, enduring instability. This migration will be most pronounced in those regions where climate vulnerability is exacerbated by weak institutions and governance and underdeveloped civil society. Recent history has shown that mass human migrations can result in increased propensity for conflict and turmoil as new populations intermingle with and compete against established populations. More frequent extreme weather events will also increase demand for military humanitarian assistance. [par break] Salt water intrusion into coastal areas and changing weather patterns will also compromise or eliminate fresh water supplies in many parts of the world [. . . .]"

Climate Conversations

A few nights ago, I quoted John Steinbeck in my World Literature class from his fall 1969 Paris Review interview: "The writers of today, even I, have a tendency to celebrate the destruction of the spirit and god knows it is destroyed often enough. But the beacon thing is that sometimes it is not." I also thought of this when I read a Yale Climate Connections story of "Mary Beth Downing of Boulder, Colorado, [standing] outside her state capitol and [ringing] a bell [. . . .] to express her concern about climate change." Downing said "[. . .] Here’s a crazy idea: anybody want to join me on the 11th day of every month at eleven o’clock to raise an awareness, raise an alarm?" The article continues "It was the start of a monthly interfaith event called the 11th Hour Calling. Participants ring the large bell [11 minutes] at a local church. Across the street, members of a Buddhist center respond by striking their gong. [ . . . .] She says it’s an opportunity for people to come together, [to] confront their fears about global warming [. . .]"

The idea sparked a plan for my next sabbatical where maybe I will host informal "Climate Conversations" on how to prepare psychologically, spiritually, and practically for what is coming.

Dahr Jamial wrote in his July 15, 2019 article "Dancing with Grief" at resilience.org "The reality is, no government on Earth is currently willing to take the dramatic measures necessary that might begin to mitigate what is coming our way. [. . . .] There can no longer be any question that life as we know it, at least for those of us in the privileged West, is now ending." I blogged about this in my July 25, 2019 post where I quoted the writer Charles Bukowski "what matters most is / how well you / walk through the / fire."

"New Study: 300 Million Face Severe Risk of Climate-Fueled Coastal Flooding by 2050"-- Democracy NOW!

In the above video, Harjeet Singh, global lead on climate change for ActionAid, says "Let’s understand, the climate crisis and the social unrest in Chile or elsewhere have the same root cause: that’s inequality. Governments continue to prioritize corporations over the rights of people [ . . . .] And if you look at these historical resolutions, the United States is responsible for more than quarter, and another quarter of emissions come from European Union. That is the inequality. Yes, China is the biggest polluter at the moment, but historical emissions come largely from United States and European Union. And if you look at the emission reduction targets that they have put on the table from the United States, European Union and even Japan, it is one fifth of their fair share."

Benjamin Strauss, co-author of the [above] study in Nature Communications and CEO and chief scientist at Climate Central, adds "If I can find any silver lining in this—and it’s hardly one, but I will say that—just as the threat from sea level rise and coastal flooding turns out to be much greater than we thought it was——three times greater—the benefits of cutting climate pollution would also be three times greater."

California Fires: This is Not the New Normal

Yesterday cbsnews.com showed two videos about recent California fires: here and here.

I heard people say "This is the new normal" but it isn't.  Instead, conditions are likely to get much worse. This 2010 post by Alan Marshall at skepticalscience.com noted "With 40 years between cause and effect, it means that average temperatures of the last decade are a result of what we were thoughtlessly putting into the air in the 1960’s. It also means that the true impact of our emissions over the last decade will not be felt until the 2040’s. This thought should send a chill down your spine!"

In contrast, Brian Kahn on December 3rd, 2014, at climatecentral.org noted "CO2 Takes Just 10 Years to Reach Planet’s Peak Heat." Kahn wrote "The research, published Wednesday in Environmental Research Letters, provides policymakers and economists with a new perspective on how fast human carbon emissions heat the planet. Back-of-the-envelope estimates for how long it takes for a given puff of CO2 to crank up the heat have generally been from 40-50 years. But the new study shows that the timeframe for CO2 emissions to reach their maximum warming potential is likely closer to 10 years."

To magnify the challenge, global carbon and methane emissions increased again in 2017 and 2018.

Criminally insane vested interests, and their political puppets, accelerate us toward this "train wreck."

Specifically, there is a brutally honest scene in the film Before the Flood where astronaut Piers Sellers is interviewed by Leonardo DiCaprio the same year Sellers died of of pancreatic cancer.  The film parts are here and here. Part of the text is below:

"[LD:] [. . . ] And what about my home state of California?"

"[PS:] Not looking great, I’m afraid. Our models predicted persistent drought in the Dust Bowl and here 50 years from now. But we’re just seeing the worst drought in 900 years here right now [in the eastern Mediterranean], so it’s coming a bit earlier than we thought. We’re talking about this happening over the period of a few decades…"

"[LD:] This is not great news."

"[PS:] People get confused about the issue, but the facts are crystal clear – the ice is melting, the Earth is warming, the sea level is rising – those are facts. Rather than being, 'oh my god, this is hopeless', say, 'OK, this is the problem, let’s be realistic and let’s find a way out of it'. And there are ways out of it. If we stopped burning fossil fuels right now, the planet would still keep warming for a little while before cooling off again."

Here is map of California fire updates.

Reflections on Arctic Circle 2019 Assembly and Leslie Field's Ice911 Geoengineering Idea to Cool the Arctic With Hollow Silicate Beads

It was great to read Mia Bennett, of the University of Hong Kong's Department of Geography and School of Modern Languages & Cultures, report on power brokers' ideas in Arctic Circle 2019 Assembly October 10 - 13 in Reykjavík. Bennett's Cryopolitics article "Welcome to the geoengineered Arctic" had informed perspective and helpful insights. She wrote, "Attending most of the Arctic Circle’s meetings over the past seven years has given me some perspective as to how the conversation about the region’s future has evolved over the better part of a decade. Over the years, everyone from former President of Iceland Olafur Ragnar Grímsson to former United Nations General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon and now, this year, former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, has said something to the effect that the 'Arctic is at the front lines of climate change.'” She added "geoengineering technologies like glass microbeads [from Ice911] and carbon capture offer more opportunities to invest. After all, there’s little money to be made in slowing down or cutting consumption and greenhouse emissions, which, let’s face it, are never going to be burning topics for plenary discussion."  Her overall article showed why it would be wiser to focus on these topics than capitalist investment strategies, and the sooner the better. Bennett's humanity brought clarity, and showed the need for Extinction Rebellion's third demand noted below of a UK "Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice."

I wrote about Ice911 in May 2019 and reminded readers of Clive Hamilton's March 10, 2015 Scientific American article about aerial sulfate spraying, another form of geoengineering, "Yet every [National Research Council] scientist, including the council authors, is convinced that if albedo modification is implemented and not followed by a program of global emission reductions, then we are almost certainly finished. Sulfate spraying without a change in the political system would make the situation worse." Similarly, I wrote on this blog about President Niinistö of Finland's statement in a joint press conference with President Trump, August 28, 2017, “If we lose the Arctic, we lose the globe.”

Eric Niiler of wired.com had good timing in his October 18, 2019 article "Can Tiny Glass Beads Keep Arctic Ice From Melting? Maaaybe,"  Niiler wrote "A group of Bay Area scientists and engineers say they have just such a solution: A thin layer of tiny glass beads that, when spread across the ice, would boost its surface reflectivity, start a slight Arctic cooling trend, and overall create more ice [ . . . .] Field says geoengineering is not a replacement for cutting back on carbon-emitting fossil fuels. Rather, she sees it as a way for nations to buy time to make bigger economic shifts. [. . . .]  Because each one is 35 micrometers in diameter, they are too big to make it past the respiratory tract filters of mammals, according to Ice911. The organization tested the material on minnows and birds with no ill effects, according to data provided in its research paper, but still needs to evaluate how it would affect marine mammals. [ . . . .]" The article notes the hollow glass bead plan, if used, may risk affecting weather in other areas.

Niiler added "Other scientists who have looked at the team’s proposal remain skeptical. Chad Thackeray, a climate scientist at UCLA, says that even with this intervention the Arctic will continue to warm, because planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions aren’t slowing down. Thackeray says the scale and cost of an operation to offset increasing Arctic temperatures would be massive."

In a previous post I cited Corey Gabriel, Executive Director of Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Masters of Advanced Studies in Climate Science and Policy (MAS CSP): "[ . . . .]  In the event that geoengineering did cause disparate regional impacts, a regulatory scheme would need to develop that would contain enforceable compensation mechanisms to compensate those who suffer any damages.  Also, I think it’s important to note the relevant comparison to make in the context of whether or not to deploy geoengineering in the future is a comparison between the damages in a world with global warming and geoengineering vs. the damages in a warmer world without geoengineering.  An extra 0.5C-0.75C of warming, on top of, say 2.5C above preindustrial, would likely be very problematic.  Potentially a great deal more problematic than whatever disparate impacts a geoengineering regime would bring about."

World history shows who gets to decide can be as important as what is decided.  Extinction Rebellion's "Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice" would help each government maintain order as food prices skyrocket and climate danger increases.

Extinction Rebellion's three demands are therefore rising in importance:

Tell the Truth
"Government must tell the truth by declaring a climate and ecological emergency, working with other institutions to communicate the urgency for change."

Act Now
"Government must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025."

Beyond Politics
"Government must create and be led by the decisions of a Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice."

For My Christian Friends (Ruth Jarman of Christian Climate Action)

Used with permission of Extinction Rebellion.

Ruth Jarman of Christian Climate Action said "I believe we are called to be faithful, and not successful."

Fighting Climate Change with Dance | KQED Arts

Used with permission of KQED Arts. 

KT Nelson's Dead Reckoning is an amazing dance that deserves to be seen and discussed. 

In the above six and a half minute video, ODC/Dance Co-Artistic Director KT Nelson says “With this thing called climate change, we have scientific evidence, we have statistical analysis. I think maybe the missing ingredient is our emotional world. Dance, because it is human beings on stage in a world, can help us can help us embody the meaning of climate change. [. . . .] Where we are with climate change is that we are navigating blindly right now. I think we’re in the middle of dead reckoning. [. . . .] The natural world to me is a friend, is a best friend. I think if a dear friend is sick any one of us would turn around and care for them. Yet, here is our planet. It’s in trouble, and I don’t think we realize we need to care for it. [. . . .] One of the things I want to convey is this feeling of being lost in this world of climate change. The panic. The franticness. The futileness of it. [. . . .] [In the Dead Reckoning dance] they eventually step on this other person, and smash her. So at the end I ask the question ‘Is what we do to the environment also what we do to each other?’”

In a previous post I quoted Forbes writer James Conca who noted September 10, 2019, "To bring this home, all you have to do is see how climate scientists are seeking psychiatric help for the depression, anxiety and PTSD that happens when you see a train wreck coming but no one seems to want to do anything about it - and you’re on the train."

In a 2016 interview at The San Diego Union Tribune I said, "People are just overwhelmed paying the rent and taking care of the kids and it was like, 'Why are you bringing us this painful information?'” [. . . .] I gave a reading at Cascadia College (in Bothell, Washington), and after it students asked me what they should do. My answer was that climate change is such a serious issue, if you are a graphic artist or a musician or an accountant, whatever you are, we need your help." 

The Moscow Times Reports East Siberian Sea Methane Emissions "Up to Nine Times the Global Average"

Thanks to Paul Beckwith for his video update Arctic Methane Measurements over Eastern Siberian Shelf Are Now the Highest Ever Measured. The Moscow Times 10/7/19 article he cites quoted Professor Igor Semiletov, of Tomsk Polytechnic University, a colleague of Natalia Shakhova, ("Expertise: chemical oceanography") Research Associate Professor at International Arctic Research Center at The University of Alaska Fairbanks. The article notes Semiletov said "This is the most powerful gas fountain I've ever seen. [ . . .] No one has ever recorded anything like this before.”

I wrote about scientific debate regarding his concern in a previous post quoting Semiletov from an October 4, 2016, Siberian Times article: "We have reason to believe that such emissions may change the climate. This is due to the fact that the reserves of methane under the submarine permafrost exceed the methane content in the atmosphere [ . . . ] many thousands of times. If 3-4% from underwater will go into the atmosphere within 10 years, the methane concentration therein (in the atmosphere) will increase by tens to hundreds of times, and this can lead to rapid climate warming. This is due to the fact that the greenhouse effect of one molecule of methane is 20-30 times greater than one molecule of CO₂."

In my post, his concern was not shared by Carolyn Ruppel, Ph.D, a Research Geophysicist at Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, and leader of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.

My post also quoted a Democracy Now! video of Dahr Jamial: "[Dr. Ira Leifer, Chemical Engineering Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, noted] the normal background rate for methane seeps from a seabed in [one area] is approximately 3000 methane seeps over a thousand square kilometer area. He had, using satellites to measure the methane, [ . . .] found in another thousand square kilometer area, [. . .] there were already 60 million methane seeps [ . . .]"  I added "Leifer was 'chief mission coordinating scientist for the NASA effort for airborne remote sensing of the Gulf oil spill.'"

In 2013 Nafeez Ahmed wrote a good overview in The Guardian "Seven facts you need to know about the Arctic methane timebomb" but it seems most world leaders did not do their homework. If they were students in my Critical Thinking class, most would receive F grades.

In a related matter, it was announced today a much better critical thinker, Valve Turner Ken Ward, faces a third trial for his help shutting down "all pipelines carrying Canadian tar sands oil into the US" according to authors of his legal fund site requesting donations.  They wrote "the Skagit County prosecutor announced they will try Ken Ward a third time, likely next February."

As of today, this blog has 7,090 views from Russia which are starting to make sense with their methane releases, floods, and fires.

In US fire news, James Rainey and Joseph Serna reported in the 10/11/19 Los Angeles Times, "A forecast of high winds and increased fire danger led PG&E to cut power Wednesday to about 730,000 customers across 34 counties, stretching from Humboldt County in the north to Kern County in the south." Today cbsnews.com reported on the ten active Southern California fires. Their video shows brave firefighters working against high winds reminding me of fast-wind fires in 2017 and 2018. Update: Doug Stanglin, Chris Woodyard and Grace Hauck of USA TODAY reported "Two dead near Los Angeles as Saddleridge fire forces 100,000 people to evacuate." The article noted "'This is a very dynamic fire,' Los Angeles Fire chief Ralph Terrazas told reporters Friday, warning that the fire — dubbed the Saddleridge fire — was devouring 800 acres an hour [. . . .] Terrazas said the fire, as of Friday morning, was 'zero' contained."

The Guardian reported "[ Update: 'millions across Japan'] were advised to evacuate due to fears of flooding as a powerful typhoon [Hagibis] was set to make landfall late on Saturday, bringing with it the heaviest rain and winds in 60 years."

Many sources noted September 2019 was Earth's "hottest" since humans kept records, as was July 2019, as was June 2019. BBC Newsnight ran a revealing 7 and half minute interview with Extinction Rebellion organizer Sarah Lunnon and one IPCC author, the Oxford University Professor Myles Allen. When host Emma Barnett asked Professor Allen "Have you found some of the scientific claims made by those associated with Extinction Rebellion unhelpful?" his answer was "It was quite gratifying as I wandered through the demonstration yesterday to actually find copies of the IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report [. . .] I think Extinction Rebellion [leaders] actually have done a very good job of trying to stick as close as they can to the science [. . . .]" That may explain why former UK police officers in the video two posts down joined them.

Matthew Green of Reuters wrote "More than 300 scientists have endorsed [the] civil disobedience campaign aimed at forcing governments to take rapid action to tackle climate change, warning that failure could inflict 'incalculable human suffering.' [par break] In a joint declaration, climate scientists, physicists, biologists, engineers and others from at least 20 countries broke with the caution traditionally associated with academia to side with peaceful protesters courting arrest from Amsterdam to Melbourne."

The climate crisis relationship between the Arctic, Canadian tar sands, California fires, Japanese typhoon Hagibis, and faster-than-predicted sea rise reminds me of a quote by John Muir: "When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe."

IMF Proposes Global $75 a Ton Carbon Tax "by 2030"

Today's Washington Post reported "The world needs a massive carbon tax in just 10 years to limit climate change, IMF says" by Chris Mooney and Andrew Freedman.

The first paragraph notes "A global agreement to make fossil fuel burning more expensive is urgent and the most efficient way of fighting climate change, an International Monetary Fund study found on Thursday."  The article added "The Nobel Prize-winning Yale economist William D. Nordhaus has argued that a carbon tax of $300 per ton or even higher might be required." and "'The climate crisis is so dire, and public/popular determination to attack it is suddenly so strong and unquenchable, that even $75/ton by 2030 seems far too moderate a target,' wrote Charles Komanoff, director of the Carbon Tax Center, in an emailed response to the IMF study."

The article cited Paolo Mauro, deputy director of the fiscal affairs department at the IMF: “If you compare the average level of the carbon tax today, which is $2 [a ton], to where we need to be, it’s a quantum leap.”

The gap between so-called "idealism" and serious planning is rapidly narrowing but action is what matters to reduce CO₂ emissions before humans lose control of the climate crisis. As I noted before, political realism is the same as planetary suicide.

In a previous post, I wrote The Imitation Game noted "We were at war with the clock." and "Sometimes it is the people no one imagines anything of [Think Greta Thunberg.] who do the things that no one can imagine."