"2020 spring salmon forecast mirrors previous year’s [low returns]" -- The Columbian

Suz on a river near our house about three years ago.

Low water steelhead fishing on Oregon coast.

Suz and I got in a big fight because her veggie casserole smelled up my sandshrimps, and fish wouldn't bite. Before that, I was scolded for being too fat, and scolded for not eating enough. I guess I'm still learning about married life.

The coho run was a bust in area rivers and fall chinook season closed early so hopefully winter steelhead fishing will be better. Oddly, coho jack counts last year were good (year-early smaller fish) but, Terry Otto of The Columbian reported Dec. 18, 2019, "Staff from [Washington and Oregon] expressed concern about the fact that the big jack return of 2018, which should have been a sign of a very strong return in 2019, [. . .] did not pan out. [par break] The fact that there were so many jacks that did not survive to spawn means something happened to adult coho in the ocean. Managers can only speculate about the reason. [. . . .] 'Certainly, the ocean has turned a little bit (poor) again in 2019.' said Tucker Jones, the ODFW manager of ocean salmon and Columbia River. 'Climate change is going to make everything more variable and dynamic, so for sure it’s a real possibility.'"  In 2016 The Columbian posted my letter about the climate/salmon issue noting "[In 2015] the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife trucked salmon up low rivers to spawn, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife trucked salmon out of Central Oregon due to warm waters, and California trucked smolts to the ocean."

I will speculate 2019 low runs were due to return of the "blob" impacting ocean feeding, increasing weakened fish' vulnerability to marine predators, and killing more fish from river disease. Specifically, I wrote in a previous post September 1, 2019 about return of the Pacific fish-killing "blob." Scott Sistek's linked katu.com news article reported "Research scientists with NOAA Fisheries note that a new expanse of unusually warm water has quickly grown in much the same way [as in 2014-15], in the same area, to almost the same size -- again [in 2019] stretching from Alaska to California."

Similarly, the Statesman Journal reported "To help the remaining [fall] Chinook spawn, officials have closed the entire North [Oregon] Coast to all salmon angling effective Dec. 13 to 31. [. . . .] [ODFW Biologist Robert] Bradley blamed abnormally dry conditions in Oregon for the spread of the [cryptobia] parasite, which has caused fish deaths in the past but never on this scale."  

In my December 8, 2013 post Dr. David Welch, a world expert on salmon migratory patterns, whom sent maps on coho, chinook, sockeye, and steelhead Pacific Ocean migrations, claimed "global warming" was one of the biggest threats to long-term survival of the Pacific Northwest's iconic fish. This fit what Bob Lackey, Professor of Fisheries at Oregon State University, emailed me: "In a 100 years wild salmon runs south of Canada will be reduced to remnant runs."

A similar nightmare is unfolding in Tasmania. 

One of my Native friends of many years told me in June some tribal elders said this may be the last human generation on Earth so it's time for gratitude for many gifts received, and time to help young people as we can.

Planck Epoch to Precambrian to Anthropocene to Titanicene, "What a long strange trip it's been." -- Grateful Dead

When the "unsinkable" Titanic went down, some rich people died. History.com noted "Of the 2,240 passengers and crew on board, more than 1,500 lost their lives in the disaster." Among the drowned was "the wealthiest passenger [ . . .] John Jacob Astor IV, heir to the Astor family fortune." Businessinsider.com reported wealthy victims included John Thayer, "railroad executive," Isidor Straus, "co-owner of Macy's— and his wife Ida," Benjamin Guggenheim, "mining magnate," George Dennick Wick, "steel magnate," and Charles Melville Hays, "railroad executive." I'm guessing it will be the same with climate crisis as insulated countries become more vulnerable with each passing year. 

Titanic has become a cliche for climate change. In an earlier post, I wrote "Barry McGuire's protest song "Eve of Destruction" written by P. F. Sloan in 1964 is a good COP25 theme song." In tribute to failed COP25, I now offer the term "Titanicene."  I chose this partly because of Dave Borlace's report "A team of climate scientists has released a new study in the journal Nature showing that the Greenland ice sheet is now melting seven times faster than it was back in 1992. [. . . and] a similar study back in June that revealed Antarctica is losing 200 billion tonnes of ice a year representing a threefold rate of loss compared to 2012." 

Sometimes asking politicians to see truth is like Kabir wrote: "people won't wake up -- Not until they feel death's club inside their skulls." In a related matter, my post PLAYA Climate Change Discussion July 7, 2016 received over 600 views, maybe because of Jason Box's comment "out of the ten possible scenarios on climate change, nine result in loss of society as we know it."  Since the climate crisis is much worse now, I'm guessing our odds are less. I recall David Suzuki said in his Dec. 16, 2018 video Why it’s time to think about human extinction "We've got a 5% chance of keeping temperature below 2 degrees [Celsius global average above year 1850 preindustrial]" [32:27 on timeline] but "We don't know enough to say it's too late [35:14 on timeline] [. . . .] Now, the hope I cling to [. . . is] based on reality. [. . . .] The biggest run of sockeye [salmon] in the world is in the Fraser River here in British Columbia, and we like to get 20 to 30 million sockeye coming back in their run. In 2009 we got just over one million sockeye [. . .] and I vividly remember turning to my wife and I said 'That's it. [. . . .] The sockeye are gone.' One year later we got the biggest run of sockeye in a hundred years [36:04 on timeline] [. . . .] Nature shocked us, and I believe that nature has many many more surprises, some of them not so great, but I think she will be far more generous than we deserve. We've got to pull back. We've got to protect every bit of nature we've got left, and work like hell to cut our ecological footprint. [ . . . .] But it's a very narrow window. [. . . .] I say that we need new technology but it's got to be technology done with great humility and care, and I believe the guiding principle of technology has got to be what's called biomimicry" [38:30 on timeline].

Suzuki asked "Who do we look to if our own politicians we elect to high office don't even care about our children? What the hell? What kind of a species are we? You're damn right it's doom and gloom" [28:27 on timeline].

"'The Most Extreme Fires We’ve Ever Seen': Record Climate-Fueled Wildfires Engulf Australia in Smoke" Democracy NOW! at COP25

Jan. 14, 2020 Update: "An Australia in flames tries to cope with an ‘animal apocalypse.’ Could California be next?" is a front page Los Angeles Times story by Joseph Serna and Susanne Rust with a two-minute video on attempts to save koalas as "50 to 80% of [their] habitat" was destroyed by recent fires.The article notes "Scientists estimate that, so far in Australia, fires have killed from hundreds of millions to more than 1 billion native animals."

January 3, 2020 BBC News Update on Australia's Fires

In the above Democracy NOW! video Bill Hare, Australian environmental scientist and director of Climate Analytics, coordinator of Climate Action Tracker, said “I’ve seen more tears at this COP [2019 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Madrid, Spain] than I’ve ever seen in the previous 24 COPS. This is the crying COP. We’re having people coming from small island states whose islands are going under absolutely devastated, almost panicking about the state of the threat they face. [. . . .] The Great Barrier Reef [. . .] on the west coast [. . .] and north [is] going under from coral bleaching. We’re seeing enormous problems happening with biodiversity. We have 400 kilometers of dead mangroves of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The scientists in my community are saying we’re beginning to see ecosystem collapse.”

In a previous post I wrote "U. S. winter is Australia's summer so it's vital to watch what is happening in Australia 'with summer yet to start' according to Nine News Australia to preview the trend of possible U. S. climate impacts June through September 2020. The 40.9 C Melbourne's 'hottest November day on record' equals 105.6 F."

The slowness of meaningful COP response is like being at a party inside a house on fire where so-called leaders are fighting over the last bag of chips.  I recall a Shell CEO told Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), "The climate problem is real but it is completely intractable. You can not solve it. So, let's get rich quick before the world ends, huh?'" In addition, see my August 29, 2018 post Schellnhuber: "Rising Seas Could Affect 1.4 Billion People by 2060."

Chilean Economist Manfred Max-Neef spoke in 2013 about what a sane global economy would look like. The start of his 5 min. video notes "five postulate[s] and one fundamental value principle." He said "The value principle I propose is that no economic interest whatsoever, under any circumstances, can be above the reverence for life. And I say life meaning much more than just human beings -- life in all its manifestations of which we are one example."

Climate Change and Why We Should Panic voiced by Keira Knightley | Extinction Rebellion

Used with permission of Extinction Rebellion.

Climate Crisis Underreported in KPBS Roundtable Discussion in San Diego

As I wrote on the back of Hawk on Wire, "the INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) agreed to in Paris in 2016 of 3.5° C (6.3° F) over pre-industrial levels are insanely irresponsible to present and future generations of all species." 

The October 2017 170 California fires and November 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, CA, widely reported as the "deadliest" in California history, may help explain the Dec. 6, 2019 Los Angels Times report by David Lauter, "Hit by fires and droughts, California [Democratic primary] voters call climate change their top priority."  The report notes "Overall, 47% chose climate change, followed by 32% picking healthcare reform, 14% immigration and 3% criminal justice."

For anyone still on the fence about climate change being human caused, consider James Powell's Nov. 20, 2019 article "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming" in Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. Powell's abstract notes "The consensus among research scientists on anthropogenic global warming has grown to 100%, based on a review of 11,602 peer-reviewed articles on 'climate change' and 'global warming' published in the first 7 months of 2019." His  biography notes he "has a PhD from MIT in Geochemistry and is the former college president, museum director, and 12-year member of the US National Science Board appointed first by President Reagan and then by the President G. H. W. Bush."  

Subject: Dec. 6 KPBS Round Table Climate Change Discussion

Editors:

Today in the KPBS Round Table discussion on climate change, I was disappointed how the danger of the climate crisis, as noted by top scientists, was underreported.

Your speakers probably know one of the most credible scientists on Earth regarding this topic is James Hansen. Hansen, former Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, warned the U. S. Congress about the climate crisis threat in 1988. 

This is what he said in his December 4, 2019, COP25 press conference, which I also linked and reported in the fifth paragraph of my recent blog post "Look, Look, Look," "450 [ppm of  CO2] is a disaster if you leave it in the air for long because we would eventually lose all coastal cities. The safe level is something less than 350 ppm but we are already at 410 ppm." I added "That should be on the front page of each newspaper on Earth."

Another credible scientific source is the IPCC. On my November 24, 2019 post "Climate Equity Graph from Meinshausen et al. 2009, and Aerosol Killing / Cooling Double Bind" I wrote the recent IPCC report noted "Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C (high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) at 2°C (very high confidence)." Here is why the IPCC is a credible source. There is no doubt among the mainstream scientific community that we will blast through 2°C because of the CO2 already in the system. In that same post I wrote "Brian Kahn on December 3rd, 2014, at climatecentral.org noted 'CO2 Takes Just 10 Years to Reach Planet’s Peak Heat' so we have some worse effects locked in."

The main [problem] with underreporting the danger of the climate crisis is that people will not plan for it.  As I asked at the end of my September 1, 2019, post  "Welcome to the Future -- Thoughts and Prayers for Those in Dorian's Path," "My two questions are: 1) What would city planning, agriculture, wilderness preservation, transportation, and colleges look like if our leaders told us this truth? and  2) What potential does humanity have if we stop playing this game of musical chairs with our and nonhuman survival?"

Please let me know if you have questions. Be advised I may post your response on my blog that has readers in 99 countries. 

Best regards,

Scott T. Starbuck

Trees, Fish, and Dreams Climateblog

"Look, Look, Look"

Some thought my last post was a bit dramatic, but it was, unfortunately, factual.
In other words, look, look, look at news the past two days:

"Huge waves and disease turn Marshall Islands into ‘a war zone,’ health official says"
by Susanne Rust in Los Angeles Times. "This week, the picture grew even bleaker as
climate change, disease and political unease collided and officials put out an international
plea for help." See The GroundTruth Project and FRONTLINE's great interactive video "The Last Generation" that "places you in the shoes of [three Marshall Islands] children as they grapple with the possibility of seeing their homeland disappear." The project won "an Emmy Award, an Online Journalism Award, World Press Photo’s Inaugural Interactive of The Year Award, a Scripps Howard Award, and a Webby Award."

"Climate crisis is 'challenge of civilisation', says pope" by Fiona Harvey in The Guardian.
Kat Kramer, "the global climate lead at Christian Aid" mentioned in the article,
noted "The studies published this week showing temperatures and emissions hitting new highs
suggests our leaders are failing us. It’s no wonder that Pope Francis has felt the need to step
in once again to remind politicians they need to do a much better job."

"Florida Keys Deliver a Hard Message: As Seas Rise, Some Places Can’t Be Saved" by
Christopher Flavelle and Patricia Mazzei in The New York Times. "To protect against expected
flooding levels in 2060, the cost would jump to $181 million [ par break] And all that to protect
about two dozen homes. [. . . .] How do you tell somebody, ‘We’re not going to build the road
to get to your home’? And what do we do?' Mr. Gastesi asked. 'Do we buy them out? And how
do we buy them out — is it voluntary? Is it eminent domain? How do we do that?'” Other serious issues, as my students and I wrote before, include what to do about "survivors and victims of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, especially those from islands of Barbuda and Puerto Rico, as well as Californians affected by fires, and millions globally enduring floods in Bangladesh [widely reported as 1/3 underwater in 2017], Peru, Nepal, India, China, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Canada, Iran, Norway, England, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, and other places." That was before the recent disaster in The Bahamas.

The climate crisis is so obvious, one has to work hard not to notice.  Professor James Hansen said in his COP25 Press Conference "450 [ppm of  CO₂] is a disaster if you leave it in the air for long because we would eventually lose all coastal cities. The safe level is something less than 350 ppm but we are already at 410 ppm." That should be on the front page of each newspaper on Earth.

In another COP25 video Paul Beckwith used the metaphor of humans as the stubborn knight in Monty Python's The Holy Grail which I is something I wrote about in my post "The Black Knight and Climate Change" September 5, 2017. with the video linked.  The difference was I faulted "world leaders" because as Isaac Asimov said, "Well, it’s perhaps not important that every human being thinks so. How about the leaders thinking so? How about the opinion-makers thinking so? Ordinary people might follow them. If we didn’t have leaders who are thinking in exactly the opposite way; if we didn’t have people who are shouting hatred and suspicion of foreigners; if we didn’t have people who are shouting that it’s more important to be unfriendly than to be friendly; if we didn’t have people shouting somehow that people inside the country who don’t look exactly the way the rest of us look, that something’s wrong with them."

Open Letter to World Leaders on "Eve of Destruction" at COP25 Dec. 2 – Dec. 13, 2019, Madrid, Spain

I may be a fisherman, and you may be the most powerful puppets on Earth, but your unbalanced goal to pursue competitive advantage over sustainable cooperation will, according to your scientists in your countries, kill most everyone and everything you value unless you rise to a higher level of consciousness by telling Big Oil their time is over. Will Pinocchio become a real boy?

Barry McGuire's protest song "Eve of Destruction" written by P. F. Sloan in 1964 is a good COP25 theme song.

Is the boat on fire or is Suz reeling in a halibut?

Sometimes I take a break from climate work to fish. On March 31, 2019, I wrote "The problem is greenhouse gases are invisible, and solution is to require by international law fossil fuel emissions in all countries be immediately colored purple the same way rotten egg scent is added to natural gas to alert homeowners to danger of leaks.  This way people can see what humans are doing in local real time to build social, political, economic, and legal will necessary to reduce emissions and preserve a livable planet.  The truth would no longer be silenced in some areas, with building catastrophic events in others, because it would be in everyone's face every second of every day [. . . .] To increase albedo, make it a nearly white purple.  [. . . .] My idea, while expensive, is not insane. What is insane is doing nothing significant to reduce emissions."

No world governments, as far as I know, took my advice.