Used with permission of Datawrapper.
Update: Dave Borlace, citing a 2019 IPCC report, noted "It's actually more like about 5 degrees Celsius higher [ . . . . ] within 80 years or so at our current trajectory."
Update: The Guardian, at Rockström's request, changed the quote below for a 4 C world to "It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or maybe even half of that."
Climate Action Tracker was updated November 2021 showing many countries improved their plans relative to 1.5 C Paris Agreement Compatibility. Previously, India was "2 C COMPATIBLE," USA and Russian Federation trajectories put us at a "4 C + WORLD" and were labeled "CRITICALLY INSUFFICIENT." As noted above, a "4 C + WORLD" means "Deadly heatwaves every summer, hundreds of drowned cities, devastation of the majority of eco-systems, more tipping points are crossed, leading to intensified warming." Earth's "most likely scenario + 3.2 C" brings "High risk of reversing of carbon cycle triggering runaway warming spiral. Droughts and famine for billions of people, leading to chaos and wars."
There is even more bad news. Amanda Erickson noted in the Washington Post October 11, 2018, "Few countries are meeting the Paris climate goals." It's small comfort "the rate of emissions growth is lower than in the previous 2 years" according to a February 3, 2020 article by CORDIS at phys.org. That's like a doctor saying "Yes, on this course the patient is terminal, but she is dying more slowly than before." Given all this, Extinction Rebellion's second demand makes sense: "Government must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025."
In a previous post I wrote, "Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, [noted] at 4 C above preindustrial 1850 baseline, 'It’s difficult to see how [Earth] could accommodate a billion people or even half of that.' I have also written the IPCC report noted 'Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C (high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) at 2°C (very high confidence).' I have seen pushback claiming humanity is not in a climate crisis, but tell that to the estimated 500 million to 1 billion people depending on those coral reefs for food and/or jobs that will clearly be lost unless some miracle science, not yet invented, saves them."
I agree with James Baldwin, "Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced."
Climate Action Tracker was updated November 2021 showing many countries improved their plans relative to 1.5 C Paris Agreement Compatibility. Previously, India was "2 C COMPATIBLE," USA and Russian Federation trajectories put us at a "4 C + WORLD" and were labeled "CRITICALLY INSUFFICIENT." As noted above, a "4 C + WORLD" means "Deadly heatwaves every summer, hundreds of drowned cities, devastation of the majority of eco-systems, more tipping points are crossed, leading to intensified warming." Earth's "most likely scenario + 3.2 C" brings "High risk of reversing of carbon cycle triggering runaway warming spiral. Droughts and famine for billions of people, leading to chaos and wars."
There is even more bad news. Amanda Erickson noted in the Washington Post October 11, 2018, "Few countries are meeting the Paris climate goals." It's small comfort "the rate of emissions growth is lower than in the previous 2 years" according to a February 3, 2020 article by CORDIS at phys.org. That's like a doctor saying "Yes, on this course the patient is terminal, but she is dying more slowly than before." Given all this, Extinction Rebellion's second demand makes sense: "Government must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025."
In a previous post I wrote, "Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, [noted] at 4 C above preindustrial 1850 baseline, 'It’s difficult to see how [Earth] could accommodate a billion people or even half of that.' I have also written the IPCC report noted 'Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C (high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) at 2°C (very high confidence).' I have seen pushback claiming humanity is not in a climate crisis, but tell that to the estimated 500 million to 1 billion people depending on those coral reefs for food and/or jobs that will clearly be lost unless some miracle science, not yet invented, saves them."
I agree with James Baldwin, "Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced."
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