"Climate Scientist [Oxford Doctor Adam Levy] reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments"

Used with permission of ClimateAdam also known as a doctor in atmospheric physics (University of Oxford) focused on communicating complex scientific ideas with engaging multimedia stories on his award-winning YouTube channel. I found this at skepticalscience.com. Listen to Dr. Piers Sellers, former NASA astronaut and Director of the Earth Science Division at NASA/GSFC, in the film Before the Flood complement Dr. Levy's points.

Climate Equity Graph from Meinshausen et al. 2009, and Aerosol Killing / Cooling Double Bind

Used with permission of POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH 

and used by Paul Beckwith. 

Update: The Guardian, at Rockström's request, changed the quote below for a 4 C world to "It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or maybe even half of that."

As a reminder, here is why the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is not a radical group. I've written on this blog about its "Global Warming of 1.5 C Report." I provided a video of implications and included a statement by Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, noting at 4 C above preindustrial 1850 baseline, "It’s difficult to see how [Earth] could accommodate a billion people or even half of that." I have also written the IPCC report noted "Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C (high confidence) with larger losses (>99%) at 2°C (very high confidence)." I have seen pushback claiming humanity is not in a climate crisis, but tell that to the estimated 500 million to 1 billion people depending on those coral reefs for food and/or jobs that will clearly be lost unless some miracle science, not yet invented, saves them. 

In the graph above, vertical above the "My kids" line, the nightmare scenario of 4 C is within their kids' lifetimes, with increasing climate chaos for those alive now in the absence of meaningful carbon reductions. In addition, as I wrote, Brian Kahn on December 3rd, 2014, at climatecentral.org noted "CO2 Takes Just 10 Years to Reach Planet’s Peak Heat" so we have some worse effects locked in. 

However, there is also the increasingly-reported problem of the role aerosols from human carbon emissions play in cooling Earth so we need a solution for that as well. Eric Holthaus reported February 8, 2018 in Grist, "According to a new study, we might be locked in this deadly embrace. Research by an international team of scientists recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters says that the cooling effect of aerosols is so large that it has masked as much as half of the warming effect from greenhouse gases. So aerosols can’t be wiped out. Take them away and temperatures would soar overnight." He continues "If we magically transformed the global economy overnight, and air pollution fell to near zero, we’d get an immediate rise in global temperatures of between 0.5 and 1.1 degrees Celsius, according to the new study. (For reference: The climate has warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century.) The warming would be concentrated over the major cities of the northern hemisphere, close to where most aerosols are emitted. In the hardest hit parts of highly-urbanized East Asia, for example, the complete removal of aerosols would likely have a bigger effect than all other sources of climate change combined. Temperatures in the Arctic could jump as much as 4 degrees Celsius — a catastrophe that would shove the region further toward a permanently ice-free state." As a reminder, President Niinistö of Finland said in Joint Press Conference with President Trump, August 28, 2017, "If we lose the Arctic, we lose the globe." 

Years before the 2018 Grist article was republished in Rolling Stone, I heard about the aerosol problem, currently noted as The McPherson Paradox, but I also saw how McPherson was challenged by climate scientist Michael E. Mann, The Guardian, and others.  Unfortunately, McPherson's ideas about "the aerosol masking effect" or "global dimming" are not easily dismissed, and I am uncertain about the magnitude of this problem. I wrote a post in 2018 "Climate Scientists Expressing Nightmare/Anger/Fear/Gratitude/Other Feelings" with a video of Australian climate scientists' fears of having children. Bill McKibben's most recent book Falter asks in its subtitle "Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?"

In short, this aerosol killing / cooling situation may have us in a double bind. The double bind idea is explained by writer / activist Derrick Jensen at about 5 minutes and 20 seconds into his Forget Shorter Showers video made by Jore. The problem may be that reducing carbon emissions, if humans can do this, is only half the solution with no widely-published plans for resulting removal of aerosol cooling effect. If you have a scientifically-viable plan, please let me know at rivermuses@gmail.com, and maybe I will add it to this post. 

James Hansen in 2012 spoke about the aerosol problem as "Doubling Down on the Faustian Bargain" at 35:48 on this Climate One video. 

U. S. winter is Australia's summer so it's vital to watch what is happening in Australia "with summer yet to start" according to Nine News Australia to preview the trend of possible U. S. climate impacts June through September 2020. The 40.9 C Melbourne's "hottest November day on record" equals 105.6 F.

The [Torture] Report

I saw the great film The [Torture] Report at Digital Gym in San Diego, and hope a similar one is in the pipeline about climate crisis and fossil fuel companies, another national disgrace. Showtimes are here. Former San Diego Mesa College student Annette Bening plays California U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, effectively showing what happens when incompetent unqualified leaders (not her) are elected or appointed at any level of responsibility.  "Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!" wrote Sir Walter Scott in 1808.  Watch one diligent honest investigator fight for human decency and justice.  Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger spoke about the situation in this quote in a previous blog post regarding his anger at fossil fuel companies lying for 60 years.

In The [Torture] Report there is a reckoning for some, as there may soon be at Exxon reported by the Los Angeles Times yesterday. This guardian.com video of "Martin Hoffert, a scientist consultant for Exxon Research and Engineering in the 1980s" makes it clear for the sake of climate justice, Exxon must compensate developing nations. Bill Mckibben recently published an article about this at yesmagazine.org. He wrote "Indeed, the high-end estimate for economic damage from the global warming we’re on track to cause is $551 trillion, which is more money than exists on planet Earth. Even that figure is notional: How do you compensate the generations of people yet unborn who will inherit a badly degraded world? Even if Exxon et al were to disgorge every dirty penny they’d ever made, it wouldn’t pay for relocating Miami, much less Mumbai [ . . . . ] But at this point, even the best-case scenarios are relentlessly grim; lots of damage has been done, and far more is in the offing. We’re going to have to remake much of the world to have a chance at survival. And if we’re going to try, then that repair job shouldn’t repeat the imbalances of power and wealth that mark our current planet. Justice demands a real effort to make the last, first this time around."

In other business, I'm grateful feedspot.com added this blog to the top 40 list of "Top 60 Global Warming Blogs & Websites To Follow in 2019" joining Skeptical Science in Australia, Google News -Global Warming, The New York Times - Climate and Environment, The Guardian - Climate change in England, NASA Climate Change, Union of Concerned Scientists - Global Warming, and others. As a former editor for SanDiego350 who served on their coordinating committee for the Road Through Paris action, I also follow Bill McKibben's Twitter Site. A good list of updated climate links is at Olympic Climate Action's Hot Off the Wire.

Climate Dominoes in California and East Australia

Used with permission of Extinction Rebellion.

Julian Cribb wrote an excellent update November 29, 2019 at The Guardian on global bushfires.

Here is a November 14, 2019, update on former Australian fire chiefs' request, and a November 13, 2019, update on koala bears and other wildlife losing habitat.

Related to the Mullins quotes below, the above Extinction Rebellion video notes "It's obviously the case that some tasks are too big for one person [ . . . ] This is the last chance we have to solve this without serious serious consequences [ . . . ] All areas of life, certainly that includes our education culture, need to start focusing on this subject [ . . . . ] Coastal communities all over the world are threatened."

California fires the past three years and fires today in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia show results of increased climate vulnerability according to climate scientists. The link above notes these parts of east Australia are having "the worst bushfire conditions in four decades." In this ABC News (Australia) video former New South Wales Fire and Rescue Commissioner Greg Mullins, meeting with California firefighters, says his warnings to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison were ignored. It was reported on November 6, 2019, Mullins said "We're coming into what I think is the [ . . . ] the most dangerous build up to a fire season I've seen since 1994 when New South Wales was devastated and there's not even platitudes [from politicians]. There's just closed doors and closed minds [ . . . ] That's atrocious that our national government doesn't recognize that there's a disaster heading their way so [ . . . ] again, please listen Prime Minister." Unfortunately, the Australian government's response was too late as this series of fires, which began the morning of November 8, now includes more than 60 fires, and the overall situation may get much worse, according to several news sources.

Regarding the global situation and specifically California, Mullins said "The most fire prone parts of the planet are burning more and more. Here in California 18,000 homes [or structures] last year. 9,000 the year before. Previously, 3,000 was the biggest they'd think of. They're just shaking their heads saying 'What the hell is around the corner?'"

Scott Roars, another speaker in the video said "When I started in this business with the forestry [ . . . ] our [fire] seasons, especially in this [California] region, would maybe run four good months [ . . . ] Now, we start in April and we go almost to Christmas."

In addition to the human cost of Prime Minister Scott Morrison ignoring Mullins' warnings, CNN reported "Hundreds of koalas [are] feared dead." The article has a great photo of a fire-injured koala.

Guardian News posted a video "A volunteer firefighter Dan Boswood has captured just how difficult the fire conditions have been in mid-north Queensland."

All these ignored warnings in Australia and the United States, and noted "catastrophic" results, are grounds for Extinction Rebellion's third demand: "Government must create and be led by the decisions of a Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice [not bound and gagged by fossil fuel companies]." I recall Antigone said about King Creon in that Greek tragedy "There is no gag like terror, is there, gentlemen?" and in his Day of Affirmation Address against injustice of apartheid in 1966, Robert F. Kennedy said, "Moral courage is a rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is the one essential, vital quality of those who seek to change a world which yields most painfully to change. [ . . . . ]  I believe that in this generation those with the courage to enter the conflict will find themselves with companions in every corner of the world." This is a good reminder of the work Extinction Rebellion has been, and is, doing.

In a bbc.com article "Is climate change to blame for Australia's bushfires?" University of Sydney Professor Glenda Wardle said "It's not every weather event that is the direct result of climate change. But when you see trends... it becomes undeniably linked to global climate change."

"Senators announce bipartisan climate caucus: 'We look a bit like Neanderthals'" -- CBS NEWS

See the CBS News video Senators announce bipartisan climate caucus: "We look a bit like Neanderthals."  Talk of going after "low hanging fruit" reminds me of Christine Lagarde's statement about the 2008 financial crisis in the film Inside Job: "And l clearly remember telling Hank: 'We are watching this tsunami coming, and you're just proposing that we ask which swimming costume we're going to put on."' At the time, she was France's Finance Minister, and would later serve as President of the European Central Bank and Chairwoman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund.  This climate crisis is much much worse because natural systems that support many economies are in rapid decline.

Greta Thunberg recently tweeted "Again and again, the same message. Listen to the scientists, listen to the scientists. Listen to the scientists!"

What are they saying?  Matthew Green reported at REUTERS October 12, 2019 "Almost 400 scientists have endorsed a civil disobedience campaign aimed at forcing governments to take rapid action to tackle climate change, warning that failure could inflict 'incalculable human suffering.' [ . . . . ] 'The urgency of the crisis is now so great that many scientists feel, as humans, that we now have a moral duty to take radical action' [said Emily Grossman,] a science broadcaster with a PhD in molecular biology,'"

The CBS News video says "In our EYE ON EARTH series a bipartisan group of senators is announcing new action on climate change [ . . . ] Some prominent republicans are joining democrats to address the crisis." Something is better than nothing, but the speed of effort is too slow for reality outside Washington, D. C.

“Violence is a failure of the imagination.” -- William Stafford

"Radiohead - Idioteque" used with permission of Extinction Rebellion.

It's a hard but important time for creative artists, scientists, young people, and middle aged or elders of conscience. Washington Governor Jay Inslee said in his recent Rolling Stone interview with Jeff Goodell "The more I think about this, the more I understand this [climate] challenge as a lack of imagination, in two ways. One, some people can’t imagine a world that is as degraded as science tells us it’s going to be. They have trouble imagining a world without coral reefs, or a way to grow grapes in California; they can’t imagine that. But more importantly, they can’t imagine a world where we are driving electric cars, where we are powering the grid with a combination of renewable energy and have much more energy-efficient homes. [par break] We have done this before, with the mobilization for World War II. We have reorganized our economy [ . . . . ]"

Similarly, see Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army. The report noted "Rising seas will displace tens (if not hundreds) of millions of people, creating massive, enduring instability. This migration will be most pronounced in those regions where climate vulnerability is exacerbated by weak institutions and governance and underdeveloped civil society. Recent history has shown that mass human migrations can result in increased propensity for conflict and turmoil as new populations intermingle with and compete against established populations. More frequent extreme weather events will also increase demand for military humanitarian assistance. [par break] Salt water intrusion into coastal areas and changing weather patterns will also compromise or eliminate fresh water supplies in many parts of the world [. . . .]"

Climate Conversations

A few nights ago, I quoted John Steinbeck in my World Literature class from his fall 1969 Paris Review interview: "The writers of today, even I, have a tendency to celebrate the destruction of the spirit and god knows it is destroyed often enough. But the beacon thing is that sometimes it is not." I also thought of this when I read a Yale Climate Connections story of "Mary Beth Downing of Boulder, Colorado, [standing] outside her state capitol and [ringing] a bell [. . . .] to express her concern about climate change." Downing said "[. . .] Here’s a crazy idea: anybody want to join me on the 11th day of every month at eleven o’clock to raise an awareness, raise an alarm?" The article continues "It was the start of a monthly interfaith event called the 11th Hour Calling. Participants ring the large bell [11 minutes] at a local church. Across the street, members of a Buddhist center respond by striking their gong. [ . . . .] She says it’s an opportunity for people to come together, [to] confront their fears about global warming [. . .]"

The idea sparked a plan for my next sabbatical where maybe I will host informal "Climate Conversations" on how to prepare psychologically, spiritually, and practically for what is coming.

Dahr Jamial wrote in his July 15, 2019 article "Dancing with Grief" at resilience.org "The reality is, no government on Earth is currently willing to take the dramatic measures necessary that might begin to mitigate what is coming our way. [. . . .] There can no longer be any question that life as we know it, at least for those of us in the privileged West, is now ending." I blogged about this in my July 25, 2019 post where I quoted the writer Charles Bukowski "what matters most is / how well you / walk through the / fire."